Do Not Trust Polls, Period

Posted on | October 22, 2018 | Comments Off on Do Not Trust Polls, Period

This morning, I woke up and clicked the TV over to CNN just to see what they were talking about. They were touting a new CNN poll that shows Democrat Andrew Gillum leading by 12 points (!!!) in the Florida governor’s race. My immediate thought was, “What the f–k? Trump won Florida two years ago, but now they’re going to elect the mayor of crime-ridden Tallahassee as governor?” So I fixed myself a cup of coffee, logged onto the computer, and clicked over to Real Clear Politics, where I learned that three previous polls had shown the Florida governor’s race neck-and-neck between Gillum and Ron DeSantis. How could it be that Gillum had suddenly opened a double-digit lead?

Here: Compare the CNN poll of 759 likely voters, conducted Oct. 16-20, to the St. Pete Polls Oct. 15-16 survey of 1,974 likely voters. CNN’s poll was conducted by a Pennsylvania-based firm, whereas St. Pete Polls is a Florida-based firm, and this may or may not reflect on the validity of the results. However, notice this in the CNN poll:

Among the entire sample, 32% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Republicans, and 39% described themselves as independents or members of another party.

Whereas the St. Pete Poll reported their sample was 39.4% Democrat, 37.1% Republican and 23.6% independent. Why the apparent oversample of independents in the CNN poll? We don’t know, but the difference in the party affiliation numbers between the two polls is entirely sufficient to explain the dramatic difference in the topline numbers.

Anecdotally, a friend in Florida tells me that he’s seeing more Gillum ads than DeSantis ads, and if the Republican is being outspent on TV, that may account for why Gillum is doing surprisingly well, but I seriously doubt that Gillum could win Florida by double digits. What we know is that midterms tend to be “base” elections. It’s about getting out the vote among the core supporters of each party, and if anyone thinks the people who vote in Florida on Election Day will be 39% independent, they’re out of their minds. That is a bad poll. Don’t trust it.

Also, don’t trust polls in general. The DeSantis campaign insists their own internal polls show the Republican actually leading. Considering the popularity of Florida’s outgoing Republican governor, Rick Scott, who’s challenging Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson, and considering the state’s large population of prosperous senior citizens, the campaign fundamentals favor Republicans in a state where, as say, Trump won in 2016.

A midterm backlash against the new president is possible, of course, and historic precedent favors Democrats this year, but nothing is certain, and what counts is who votes on Nov. 6. Trust no polls.

UPDATE: I solicited the opinion of a source who is in the polling business, who replied: “Your analysis is spot-on. No way the independents are that high. I do believe there are more independents because Democrats have been drifting away from the party but not 39%.”

Let me add something else: On Election Day 2012, I believed Romney would pull off an upset victory. This was based on analysis of county-by-county turnout by experienced operatives. What went wrong? Well, the operatives were running numbers based on 2008-2010 party alignment in the electorate, and the Democrats had succeeded in reaching enough so-called “low-information” voters to make the winning margin for Obama.It is very difficult to know in advance what the actual electorate — the people who show up to vote — will look like on Election Day, and attempts to “model” the electorate involve mere hypotheticals. Honestly, Republicans have to be worried about the poll numbers in Florida, considering what I’ve heard anecdotally about there being more Gillum ads than DeSantis ads on TV. But worried voters are also energized voters: If you’re a Trump voter in Florida who wasn’t necessarily fired up to vote this year, the danger that Andrew Gillum might become your governor should be all the incentive you need.

Oh, Scott Adams predicts the biggest GOP turnout ever.

Category: Election, Florida, Polls

Early Morning With Rule 5 Monday: Coffee FFS

Posted on | October 22, 2018 | 2 Comments

— compiled by Wombat-socho

Not going to lie, I could use a cup right now, but this room has no coffee machine, and I stupidly left my container of Folger’s in the storage locker last week. This week’s appetizer is a girl who knows what’s up with tread juice.

She’s right.

Ninety Miles From Tyranny: Hot Pick Of The Late Night, The 90 Miles Mystery Box Episode #412, Morning Mistress, and Girls With Guns.

Animal Magnetism: Rule Five DNA Test Friday and the Saturday Gingermageddon.

EBL: Teresa Wright, Sophia Reaney, S.E. Cupp, Kerry Bishe, Marie Antoinette, Sarah Jane Morris, #MeToo Snow White & Cinderella, National Pasta Day Rule 5, and Christina Hendricks.

A View From The Beach: The Mutable Portia di Rossi, Fall Color Friday, Making the Weather Seem Good – Yanet Garcia, Another So So Year for Chesapeake Bay Striped Bass, Oh No! Not Beer!, Russiagate: Stormy Daniels Denied!, Even Supermodels Get the Blues, Monday Morning Water Buffalo and Full Metal Belly Dancing.

Proof Positive’s Friday Night Babe is Gabrielle Anwar, his Vintage Babe is Jill Ireland, and Sex in Advertising is covered by Yvonne Strahovski. At Dustbury, it’s Inna and Kathy Kirby.

Thanks to everyone for all the luscious links!

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Category: Rule 5

Who Is Funding the Foreign Invasion?

Posted on | October 21, 2018 | Comments Off on Who Is Funding the Foreign Invasion?

The election-year propaganda campaign continues:

A growing throng of Central American migrants resumed their advance toward the U.S. border in southern Mexico on Sunday, overwhelming Mexican government attempts to stop them at the border.
Their numbers swelled to about 5,000 overnight and at first light they set out walking toward the Mexican town of Tapachula, 10 abreast in a line stretching approximately a mile (1.5 kilometers).
Several hundred more already had applied for refugee status in Mexico and an estimated 1,500 were still on the Guatemalan side of the Suchiate River, hoping to enter legally.
It was not immediately clear where the additional travelers had materialized from since about 2,000 had been gathered on the Mexican side Saturday night. But people have been joining and leaving the caravan daily, some moving at their own pace and strung out in a series of columns as they moved across Guatemala. . . .
Olivin Castellanos, 58, a truck driver and mason from Villanueva, Honduras, said he took a raft across the river after Mexico blocked the bridge. “No one will stop us, only God,” he said. “We knocked down the door and we continue walking.”

Gosh, I guess this is just another random coincidence:

As a mob of thousands of migrants made their way north from Honduras toward the U.S. border last week, events in a closely-watched congressional race took an important turn. Politico reported that Democrats had pulled resources out of their campaign against Republican Rep. Will Hurd in the 23rd District of Texas. If their national leadership has ceded TX23 — one of the most competitive districts in the country — Democrats’ chance of a Nov. 6 “blue wave” is now in serious doubt.
The connection between the American midterm election and the northbound caravan of Honduran migrants is probably not a coincidence, although liberals in the media will scream “conspiracy theory” at any Republican who points this out. If your cynical hunch is that the latest “refugee” crisis has been manufactured by the Left as an election-year propaganda effort, however, you’re not alone. A Google search for the terms “Soros + Honduras + caravan” turned up nearly 300,000 results Friday. You don’t have to be paranoid to suspect that billionaire George Soros is paying the bills whenever you see any allegedly spontaneous “grassroots” activism on behalf of Democrats. When a left-wing activist was arrested last week for assaulting the female campaign manager for Nevada GOP gubernatorial candidate Adam Laxalt, it turned out the suspect was on the payroll of American Bridge 21st Century, an organization funded by — you guessed, didn’t you? — George Soros.
Without regard to whether the Honduran migrant caravan is another Soros-funded project, the timing would seem to indicate it was organized with the aim of impacting the midterm elections. The caravan began heading north just as Democrats were raising alarms about a lack of interest among Hispanic voters. . . .

Read the rest of my column at The American Spectator.

Category: Election, George Soros, Honduras, Immigration

Twitter Bans Bruce Carroll (@GayPatriot) for Unspecified ‘Hateful Conduct’

Posted on | October 21, 2018 | Comments Off on Twitter Bans Bruce Carroll (@GayPatriot) for Unspecified ‘Hateful Conduct’

Everybody who knows @GayPatriot loves @GayPatriot unless, of course, they are just left-wing douchebags and guess what? Twitter is staffed entirely by left-wing douchebags:

Gay Patriot, a popular conservative Twitter user, has been permanently blacklisted from the social network for undefined “hateful conduct.”
Gay Patriot, whose real name is Bruce Carroll, was informed by Twitter that his account would “not be restored because it was found to be violating Twitter’s Terms of Service, specifically the Twitter Rules against hateful conduct.”
Before his permanent ban, Carroll had over 70,000 followers.
The suspension prompted complaints from dozens of notable conservatives and libertarians, including Michelle Malkin, Dana Loesch, Austin Petersen, and Erick Erickson.
“If his stuff is how [Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey] wants to define ‘hateful,’ that’s fine. We just want equal application of the rules,” declared writer Amelia Hamilton. “But it’s kind of hard to forget things like the big ‘meh’ when [radio host Dana Loesch] literally had her kids threatened.”

Stephen Green explains that Twitter refuses to specify which of Carroll’s messages constituted “hateful conduct.” This was the case when I was suspended in February 2016. According to Twitter, I was guilty of “participating in targeted abuse,” but they refused to say (a) who was targeted, (b) how they were abused, or (c) how I participated. Such vague accusations, made without evidence, may constitute defamation.

Twitter is accumulating bad karma, and when that wheel in the sky turns, they will have to cause to regret such injustices.

Category: Media Bias

S. Africa Seizing White-Owned Farms; White Farmers Fleeing to … Russia?

Posted on | October 21, 2018 | Comments Off on S. Africa Seizing White-Owned Farms; White Farmers Fleeing to … Russia?

The fruits of anti-white hatred will be bitter:

According to numerous experts, Russian authorities are currently wooing farmers to live there in the hopes they will boost Russia’s agricultural industry.
It comes as the first test case for land redistribution was announced when the council for the city of Ekurhuleni votes to seize hundreds of acres of land from private owners to build low-cost housing.
South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa first sent shockwaves around the world this summer when he indicated the country could change its constitution to allow expropriations.
The plans to seize white-owned land without providing compensation were widely condemned, with critics accusing the government of not respecting the rule of law.
And if white farm expropriations pick up pace, it could be Russia that benefits from the skilled labour.
Vladimir Putin’s Government has scrapped tourist visa requirements for South Africans, which it is thought was done to make it easier for them to visit and look at potential homes.
Vladimir Poluboyarenko, a government liaison from the Stavropol region in southern Russia, said: “I want them to know that Russia can be their mother country, too.”

Property rights are the basis of all economic advancement. People will not work to create wealth unless they can be sure that they will own what they have created. The protection of private property is therefore one of the most basic functions of government. If a government begins to threaten the “rich” with expropriation (or confiscatory taxes), this will cause a shortage of capital, as those with wealth will leave the country, and foreign investment will dry up. Within a short time, a relatively rich country can be plunged into poverty, as has happened in Venezuela. The consequences of Ramaphosa’s anti-white policies are predictable: The white minority in South Africa will flee, tourism and foreign investment will decline, and South Africa will descend into poverty and violence.

About 20,000 white South Africans leave the country every year, and white people are now less than 9% of the country’s population. The Ramaphosa government’s idea that it can help black people by seizing the property of whites will yield little benefit to those it claims to “help,” since the value of farmland will decline because whites will no longer be willing to buy farms, when their purchases might be seized from them. And as net out-migration by whites can be expected to increase as a consequence of the government’s anti-white hostility, there would be fewer potential white buyers for farms anyway. Real estate values in South Africa are likely to plummet. But if socialists were capable of understanding the consequences of their policies, they wouldn’t be socialists, would they?

Category: Economics, Racism, South Africa

FMJRA 2.0: Viva Las Vegas

Posted on | October 20, 2018 | 1 Comment

— compiled by Wombat-socho

Arielle Scarcella: Gay People Are ‘F–king Terrified’ to Criticize Trans Ideology
EBL

FMJRA 2.0: Turn Your Radio On
The Pirate’s Cove
357 Magnum
A View From The Beach
EBL

The TrigglyPuff Party: How Democrats Created Insane ‘Social Justice’ Mobs
BassBarn Forums
Stately McDaniel Manor
EBL

9 Second Explanation Of US Politics
A View From The Beach
EBL

Rule 5 Sunday: Salma Hayek
Proof Positive
Ninety Miles From Tyranny
A View From The Beach
EBL

Arizona Democrat ‘Summoned Witches’ to Attend 2003 Anti-War Protest Event
EBL

In The Mailbox: 10.15.18
Proof Positive

How White Is Elizabeth Warren?
A View From The Beach
EBL

New Jersey ‘Rape Culture’: Democrat Says She Was Raped by Governor’s Aide
EBL

Why I Still Twitter
357 Magnum
EBL

In The Mailbox: 10.16.18
357 Magnum
Proof Positive
A View From The Beach

As ‘Blue Wave’ Collapses, Desperate Democrat Denounced by Women
EBL

‘Transgender’ as Self-Harm
EBL

In The Mailbox: 10.17.18
Proof Positive
A View From The Beach

Notorious Moonbat Mike Stark Arrested for Attacking GOP Campaign Staffer
EBL

‘The Idioms of Non-Argument’
EBL

Late Night With In The Mailbox: 10.18.18
Proof Positive

‘Lotus Fields of Multicultural Delusion’
EBL

In The Mailbox: 10.19.18
Proof Positive
EBL

Friday Fiction: 100 Word Challenge
EBL

Top linkers for the week ending October 19:

EBL (16)
(tied) A View From The Beach and Proof Positive (6)

Thanks to everyone for all the linkagery!

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Category: FMJRA Award

Catholic ‘Gay Mafia’ in Action

Posted on | October 20, 2018 | Comments Off on Catholic ‘Gay Mafia’ in Action

Fr. Sean Sheridan of Franciscan University.

My colleague at The American Spectator, George Neumayr, is author of The Political Pope: How Pope Francis Is Delighting the Liberal Left and Abandoning Conservatives. He has written extensively on the latest scandals of clerical pedophilia, including “The Fall of the Gay Mafia’s Don,” about disgraced Archbishop Donald Wuerl. Neumayr’s latest column is about “diversity and inclusion” (IYKWIMAITYD) at a nominally Catholic university:

Secularized American Catholic universities fail every test of honest advertisement: they are neither Catholic nor American, insofar as they peddle heresies and anti-American ideologies, and they don’t even resemble universities. They are more like glorified PC high schools or left-wing adult learning annexes. They are worse than a waste of time and money; they corrode souls and deform minds. A few of them are academically strong in this or that department, but in general they are ghastly messes — sorry products of the 1967 Land O’ Lakes Statement, a baldly heretical declaration cobbled together by Notre Dame’s Theodore Hesburgh, and incidentally signed and promoted by the pedo-rapist Theodore McCarrick, which called on all Catholic colleges and universities to secularize.
Sadly, Franciscan University of Steubenville, which many Catholics assume is safe from that secularist contagion, is succumbing to it. Both the president of Steubenville University and his COO (who functions as a de facto executive vice president) are “pushing the school to embrace the LGBT agenda,” says an angry parent. Concerned Catholics, including several shocked parents and students, contacted me several months ago about the secularizing mischief of Fr. Sean Sheridan, Steubenville University’s president, and his hand-picked COO William Gorman. They have set up a “Diversity and Inclusion Committee,” which they are using to “undermine the Church’s teachings on human sexuality,” says a concerned Catholic who has witnessed the school’s slide toward secularism over many years. “Sheridan and Gorman want to drive conservatives off campus and bring gay-rights propagandists like Jesuit James Martin on to it.” . . .

Read the rest at The American Spectator. Because I’m a Protestant and don’t ordinarily pay much attention to news about the Catholic Church, I was rather shocked by how far the shadow of suspicion reaches. Knowing nothing about Fr. Sheridan myself, I at first hesitated to put his photo under a “Gay Mafia” headline, but then thought: “Whose fault is it that he has become an object of suspicion?” As Neumayr says, Franciscan University previously had a reputation as a rather conservative school, until Sheridan started this “diversity and inclusion” charade. Everybody now recognizes this as code-speak for “Gayer Than the San Francisco Pride Parade” and, when coupled with the revelations of priestly pedophilia, clerical advocates of this agenda are necessarily suspected of being complicit in the molestation of boys. That’s not my fault, and while I recognize the basic unfairness of guilt-by-association, the current scandals affecting the Catholic clergy are notorious enough that any priest who does not wish to become a suspect would be well advised to keep his distance from “diversity and inclusion.”

The Catholic Church is currently demonstrating O’Sullivan’s First Law: “All organizations that are not actually right-wing will over time become left-wing.” George Neumayr is correct, by the way, about how awful Catholic universities have become, e.g., “Queer Feminism at Marquette University” (Oct. 26, 2016) and “Gender-Neutral at Notre Dame?” (April 5, 2016). The latter post includes this warning:

What we are witnessing in the 21st century is the revival of an ancient heresy, a postmodern version of Gnosticism. The theologian Peter Jones first described this weird phenomenon in his 1992 book The Gnostic Empire Strikes Back: An Old Heresy for the New Age. Jones further explored the neo-Gnostic trend in his 1997 book Spirit Wars: Pagan Revival in Christian America. This steady drift toward syncretism suggests that many Christian “leaders” and institutions are now “giving heed to seducing spirits, and doctrines of devils; Speaking lies in hypocrisy; having their conscience seared with a hot iron” (I Timothy 4:1-3 KJV).

Like I keep saying, people need to wake the hell up.