The Other McCain

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Illinois Update: Brady Leads in GOP Gov. Race; Kirk Wins Senate Primary

Posted on | February 2, 2010 | 38 Comments

LIVE RESULTS

Wednesday, Feb. 3, 12:15 a.m. ET: As disappointing as the Illinois GOP gubernatorial primary is for Andrzejewski’s Tea Party supporters, Mark Kirk’s win in the Senate GOP primary is much worse from a conservative perspective. Michelle Malkin notes the “hold-your-nose” factor as reflected in the ultra-low primary turnout.

11:55 p.m. ET: Bill Brady leads Kirk Dillard by fewer than 2,000 votes with 97% of precincts reporting. Jim Hoft’s updated headline — ANDRZEJEWSKI SURGING . . . Maybe not — captures the sense of widespread disappointment among supporters of the Tea Party insurgent, who is about 40,000 votes behind the leaders.

Over the weekend, some of Andrzejewski’s staffers were second-guessing their tactics, but there’s really nothing to be gained by rear-view mirror recriminations. The entrenched strength of the GOP Establishment is such that any “outsider” candidate fights against near-insurmountable odds.

Like Doug Hoffman in last year’s NY23 campaign, Andrzejewski started with near-zero name recognition. The Chicago-area media did its best to ignore Andrzejewski campaign and a late surge of New Media attention was, alas, too late to overcome that disadvantage. As with Hoffman, the lessons learned from this campaign, and the network of contacts built in the process, can be employed going forward.

With RINO Mark Kirk the winner of the GOP Senate primary, and Obama-endorsing Dillard going down to the wire in the gubernatorial primary, conservatives in Illinois are understandably glum. Expect to hear rumblings of third-party campaigns in the next few days. Expect that talk to fade when the third-party advocates discover the high hurdles to ballot access in Illinois.

In the end, the challenge for Tea Party activists in Illinois — as elsewhere — is to focus their energies toward the long, slow process of getting inside the regular GOP machinery. Over the past couple of years, Ron Paul’s supporters have discovered that in many instances, it takes only a half-dozen or so dedicated activists to capture a county Republican committee. Tea Party people can learn the same lesson.

Sitting through the tedious proceedings of a county GOP meeting might not be exciting and revolutionary, but such is the mundane business of pursuing real political influence.

11:05 p.m.: With 92% of precincts reporting, it’s neck-and-neck between Kirk Dillard, Bill Brady and Andy McKenna. A source with the Andrzejewski campaign says Brady is a “good guy,” compared to either Dillard or McKenna.

Much ire among Andrzejewski’s supporters is directed toward Dan Proft, a marginal candidate who currently has about 45,000 votes and whom some suspect of being a stalking horse for McKenna’s GOP machine. Proft was profiled last year by Chicago Tribune columnist John Kass who notes Proft’s ties to Al Capone’s old haunts:

All this talk of reform is exciting, except for one thing. Proft has a problem. It’s the size of Cicero. That doesn’t necessarily disqualify him. But when a candidate is linked to Cicero, that candidate finds himself on the defensive.
For years Proft’s public relations firm has reaped hundreds of thousands of dollars in fees from governments in and around Cicero, not exactly the most reformish hamlet in the state.
My colleague at the Sun-Times, Carol Marin, has been merciless in dissecting Proft. She’s made Cicero a special study for years. If Proft thought that one day he’d run for governor, he should have stayed out of the town that Al Capone built.
“I’m not here to try and convince you that Cicero is Mayberry,” Proft said. “People can play that guilt-by-association game. I had a responsibility to a client, to represent their interests, just like an attorney would, just like any professional would. And that’s what I did.”

Add together the votes for Proft — who was endorsed Monday by Richard Baehr of American Thinker — and Andrzejewski, and you’d have a winning plurality. Just sayin’ . . .

10:25 p.m.: Bill Brady runs strong in rural counties:
Franklin . . . . . . 56%
Edwards . . . . . . 55%
Lee . . . . . . . . . 50%
Washington . . . . 49%
Livingston . . . . . 46%
Fulton . . . . . . . 40%

10:17 p.m. ET — With 73% of precincts reporting, less than six points separate first place (20.4%) and fifth place (14.8%).

10:10 p.m. ET — The polls in Illinois have been closed for more than two hours, and 67 percent of precincts are reporting. While Andrzejewski is currently in fifth place, his strong showing in Madison County (40% with 83% of precincts reporting) should be reflected in neighboring counties where precincts are surprisingly slow to report. Nevertheless, it looks like Brady’s strength in the southern tip of the state may turn this into a battle between Brady and McKenna, with Dillard, Ryan and Andrzejewski in a close race for third.

9:50 p.m ET. — Strange: Nearly two hours after the polls closed, zero precincts reporting in St. Clair County, a St. Louis suburb that should be strong for Andrzejewski, who has 40% of the vote in neighboring Madison County, which has already reported 70% of its precints.

9:40 p.m. ET — When watching these media reports of election results, it’s important to note that 46% of precincts reporting is not the same as 46% of the votes. The largest precincts may report late. That said, it appears from the county-by-county results that Brady and Andrzejewski split a lot of the down-state and rural vote, while McKenna — whose strength is in the Chicago suburbs — is emerging as the winner over Dillard.

9:20 p.m. ET — One of my Twitter friends: “Ain’t lookin good for the good guys, Stace.” Indeed, with 31% of precincts reporting, Andrzejewski is in fourth place with 15%, and Andy McKenna’s strong support in the Chicago suburbs has him in first place at 25%. The good news so far: Obama-endorsing Kirk Dillard is in still below 20%.

9:10 p.m. ET — Looking at the map of the results, you see that most of the counties have not yet reported a single precinct. Andrzejewski is indeed strongest in the St. Louis suburbs — Metro East, it’s called — which are a hotbed of Tea Party activism.

9 p.m. ET — Live counter of results. With 24% of precincts reporting, McKenna leads with 28%, Andrzejewski currently fourth with 16%.

8:24 p.m. ET (Smitty) — Andrzejewski campaign reports results in from Williamson County show their candidate topping Brady by 1 vote. “It’s gonna be close.” Expect further updates.

7:50 p.m. ET — Welcome, Instapundit readers! A source in Springfield reports that exit polls indicate a three-man race between Andrzejewski, Brady and Dillard, with McKenna fourth. Polls close in 10 minutes, so we’ll have actual vote totals soon. Stay tuned . . .

7:40 p.m. ET — Partial exit-poll reports indicate Andrzejewski “coming on strong,” says my source, with Dillard “dropping fast.” The campaign was still pushing GOTV at 6:30 p.m. CT, focusing on the Metro East suburbs of St. Louis downstate. “We can get another thousand votes out of there in the next half-hour.” Local conservative talk radio programs were reportedly inundated with call-ins from Andrzejewski suporters. “It’s crazy.” Expect more from Gateway Pundit tonight. Will continue to keep you updated here . . .

6:55 p.m. ET — “We’re on fire!” a campaign operative for Adam Andrzejewski told me in a phone conversation shortly after 5 p.m. CT (6 p.m. ET). “It’s freaking insane.”

The campaign staff was energized by Erich “Mancow” Mueller’s endorsement this morning. E-mail networks of Tea Party activists are overflowing with messages about the campaign’s all-out drive to get voters to the poll in the Illinois GOP gubernatorial primary. Some volunteers have used washable paint to festoon their vans with “Vote for Adam” slogans.

According to my source, their turnout operation is “looking good in downstate and East Metro,” which are Andrzejewski’s key areas. Polls close at 7 p.m. CT — a little more than an hour from now.

The candidate is reportedly awaiting results in Oak Park.

EXPECT FURTHER UPDATES . . .

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Category: Election, Illinois, Republicans, Tea Party

Comments

38 Responses to “Illinois Update: Brady Leads in GOP Gov. Race; Kirk Wins Senate Primary”

  1. uberVU - social comments
    February 2nd, 2010 @ 7:24 pm

    Social comments and analytics for this post…

    This post was mentioned on Twitter by sybilll: RT @rsmccain: #ILGov UPDATE: @AdamForIllinois Andrzejewski GOTV Effort ‘On Fire’ http://bit.ly/cwv8Xq [] #TeaParty #tcot PLZ ReTweet…

  2. Instapundit » Blog Archive » ILLINOIS UPDATE: Andrzejewski Get-Out-the Vote Effort ‘On Fire.’ Well, we’ll know soon if it w…
    February 2nd, 2010 @ 7:40 pm

    […] UPDATE: Andrzejewski Get-Out-the Vote Effort ‘On Fire.’ Well, we’ll know soon if it […]

  3. John
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 12:50 am

    Tea party candidate success, again.

  4. John
    February 2nd, 2010 @ 7:50 pm

    Tea party candidate success, again.

  5. Bryan McRoberts
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 12:55 am

    I voted for him today.

  6. Bryan McRoberts
    February 2nd, 2010 @ 7:55 pm

    I voted for him today.

  7. Omnibus Driver
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 1:03 am

    I really like his message about opening up the books online. I voted for him!

  8. Omnibus Driver
    February 2nd, 2010 @ 8:03 pm

    I really like his message about opening up the books online. I voted for him!

  9. Andrew
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 1:04 am

    Make sure to give a big shout out to the news stations that covered Lach Walesa’s visit this week.

  10. Andrew
    February 2nd, 2010 @ 8:04 pm

    Make sure to give a big shout out to the news stations that covered Lach Walesa’s visit this week.

  11. mpw280
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 1:06 am

    Got my vote, along with Mark Kirk and Sandy Cole.
    mpw

  12. mpw280
    February 2nd, 2010 @ 8:06 pm

    Got my vote, along with Mark Kirk and Sandy Cole.
    mpw

  13. Cold Fury » Rage Against the Illinoise Machine
    February 2nd, 2010 @ 9:54 pm

    […] And of course RSM is still on the beat: 9:50 p.m. — Strange: Nearly two hours afte the polls closed, zero precincts reporting in St. […]

  14. jim m
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 2:58 am

    Andrzejewski is losing Cook Co by 20,000 votes. I don’t see him making that up anywhere. The media black out in Chicago on his campaign is killing him.

  15. jim m
    February 2nd, 2010 @ 9:58 pm

    Andrzejewski is losing Cook Co by 20,000 votes. I don’t see him making that up anywhere. The media black out in Chicago on his campaign is killing him.

  16. ahem
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 4:57 am

    yes, it certainly is a media blackout.

  17. ahem
    February 2nd, 2010 @ 11:57 pm

    yes, it certainly is a media blackout.

  18. Robert
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 4:59 am

    Thanks for the updates. I have been working so I haven’t had time to watch this as closely as I would have liked.

  19. Robert
    February 2nd, 2010 @ 11:59 pm

    Thanks for the updates. I have been working so I haven’t had time to watch this as closely as I would have liked.

  20. Natedawg
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 5:18 am

    It just goes to show us that the entrenched politicians are still running the show. Expect more of the same, Illinois. Apparently we deserve it…

  21. Natedawg
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 12:18 am

    It just goes to show us that the entrenched politicians are still running the show. Expect more of the same, Illinois. Apparently we deserve it…

  22. Miss Sharon
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 5:33 am

    Thanks, Stacey. A long night when our guy does not finish first. Small solace in Brady winning and Obama buddy Kirk Dillard losing.

    Alternative media needs to grow even stronger IMO.The lack of coverage for Walesa was despicable even more then ignoring a newcomer like Adam ANGEEFFFSKI. Tough name recognition.

    The early date changed for the presidential primary to give Obama an advantage over Hillary was another hurdle. Damn leftists.
    MM says lame and lamer. I say Leftist and More Leftist.

    Appreciate the coverage.
    Someday I will figure out how to put my avi on this blog…

  23. Miss Sharon
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 12:33 am

    Thanks, Stacey. A long night when our guy does not finish first. Small solace in Brady winning and Obama buddy Kirk Dillard losing.

    Alternative media needs to grow even stronger IMO.The lack of coverage for Walesa was despicable even more then ignoring a newcomer like Adam ANGEEFFFSKI. Tough name recognition.

    The early date changed for the presidential primary to give Obama an advantage over Hillary was another hurdle. Damn leftists.
    MM says lame and lamer. I say Leftist and More Leftist.

    Appreciate the coverage.
    Someday I will figure out how to put my avi on this blog…

  24. Gateway Pundit
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 12:47 am

    […] The Other McCain is following the primary […]

  25. JG
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 6:58 am

    It seems to me, actually, it should be apparent to anyone with a high school diploma that this country needs to indulge less in the likes of US Weekly and invest the amount of money they most likely spend on Starbuck’s lattes and McDonald’s drive-thru; on perhaps, I don’t know… a history book? I am appalled at the sheer lack of what should be common knowledge in this country. It is sadly however, not the blind leading the blind, but the manipulative leading the lazy… those too lazy to educate themselves. It goes without saying that the majority of us in 7th and 8th grade weren’t paying attention in social studies, due largely in part to the lack of an attention span longer than the lunch line; however, there is absolutely no excuse for anyone over the age of 18 to not have a basic understanding of what ‘government’ is and what it was created to do ‘of, by, and for the people’. How on Earth can it be of or by the people if they don’t understand or care to inquire about what is going on and how it affects them? Why does it seem that the general understanding of the public (the uneducated know-it-all’s who follow blindly) is as if it is the governments money and they want to elect someone who will cater to their current wants and needs? It seems as though people, certainly not all but so many, forget that it is THEIR money, not the governments. It is our money, and they were to be en-trusted to use it wisely, for the betterment of the environment in which we live. Instead the government has turned into some greedy, untrustworthy boss who gathered office donations (in specified amounts based upon his opinion of whether or not he thought the company paid the individual too much) and decided to first, take some for himself, then give some to his friends, treat that lazy receptionist who’s on her phone all day to a fancy free lunch and then buy used, jenky computers for the whole office in place of the brand new ones (he promised) that the fund was originally put in place to provide. Dirty politicians with insincere motives bank on the lazy individuals who don’t know any better than to vote for them… if they didn’t they wouldn’t spend so much time on fancy ad campaigns and faux-‘inspiring’ speeches, because those wouldn’t be necessary if it were really about the facts and really about the people. I am equally as disgusted by those too lazy to educate themselves, register to vote, and drag their lazy asses off the couch and away from their favorite illiterate reality-TV stars to vote. Although, I am even more disgusted by those who think that if they watch an MTV news alert and follow P. Diddy’s candidate endorsement that they know what they’re talking about and actually DO go vote, completely ill-informed. When did it become intrusive to expect someone to be self-informed on the issues before opening their mouth… those are the very individuals who can’t seem to keep their mouths shut; I suppose in fear that if they quiet for a moment it will allow someone with an informed opinion to dispel their nonsense, IE: Obama. I find it funny how he was so adamant to retreat from the war but trudges forward with the assault that is ‘Obamacare’ on this country. Disaster.

  26. JG
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 1:58 am

    It seems to me, actually, it should be apparent to anyone with a high school diploma that this country needs to indulge less in the likes of US Weekly and invest the amount of money they most likely spend on Starbuck’s lattes and McDonald’s drive-thru; on perhaps, I don’t know… a history book? I am appalled at the sheer lack of what should be common knowledge in this country. It is sadly however, not the blind leading the blind, but the manipulative leading the lazy… those too lazy to educate themselves. It goes without saying that the majority of us in 7th and 8th grade weren’t paying attention in social studies, due largely in part to the lack of an attention span longer than the lunch line; however, there is absolutely no excuse for anyone over the age of 18 to not have a basic understanding of what ‘government’ is and what it was created to do ‘of, by, and for the people’. How on Earth can it be of or by the people if they don’t understand or care to inquire about what is going on and how it affects them? Why does it seem that the general understanding of the public (the uneducated know-it-all’s who follow blindly) is as if it is the governments money and they want to elect someone who will cater to their current wants and needs? It seems as though people, certainly not all but so many, forget that it is THEIR money, not the governments. It is our money, and they were to be en-trusted to use it wisely, for the betterment of the environment in which we live. Instead the government has turned into some greedy, untrustworthy boss who gathered office donations (in specified amounts based upon his opinion of whether or not he thought the company paid the individual too much) and decided to first, take some for himself, then give some to his friends, treat that lazy receptionist who’s on her phone all day to a fancy free lunch and then buy used, jenky computers for the whole office in place of the brand new ones (he promised) that the fund was originally put in place to provide. Dirty politicians with insincere motives bank on the lazy individuals who don’t know any better than to vote for them… if they didn’t they wouldn’t spend so much time on fancy ad campaigns and faux-‘inspiring’ speeches, because those wouldn’t be necessary if it were really about the facts and really about the people. I am equally as disgusted by those too lazy to educate themselves, register to vote, and drag their lazy asses off the couch and away from their favorite illiterate reality-TV stars to vote. Although, I am even more disgusted by those who think that if they watch an MTV news alert and follow P. Diddy’s candidate endorsement that they know what they’re talking about and actually DO go vote, completely ill-informed. When did it become intrusive to expect someone to be self-informed on the issues before opening their mouth… those are the very individuals who can’t seem to keep their mouths shut; I suppose in fear that if they quiet for a moment it will allow someone with an informed opinion to dispel their nonsense, IE: Obama. I find it funny how he was so adamant to retreat from the war but trudges forward with the assault that is ‘Obamacare’ on this country. Disaster.

  27. The American Spectator : AmSpecBlog : Illinois: Tea Party Revolution 'Delayed . . . Not Denied'
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 3:46 am

    […] in Illinois last night, a source with Adam Andrzejewski's gubernatorial campaign told me that exit polling showed surprisingly strong support for state Sen. Bill Brady in the […]

  28. Miss Sharon
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 9:49 am

    http://twitter.com/KLSouth/status/8581677916

    At 2:24 am – David Orr, Cook County Clerk, suspended tallying in the GOP Gov primary race. Recount here we come! ILSCOTUS here we go!

  29. Miss Sharon
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 4:49 am

    http://twitter.com/KLSouth/status/8581677916

    At 2:24 am – David Orr, Cook County Clerk, suspended tallying in the GOP Gov primary race. Recount here we come! ILSCOTUS here we go!

  30. Chuck Cross
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 1:43 pm

    @ JG – Nice vent. We are witnessing history. It has only been about the last 200 years in civilization (spare a few small spaces in time) where republican-democracy has reigned, and with it, universal suffrage (really a 20th century phenomenon).

    But in the PC-world, such things may not be discussed politely.

  31. Chuck Cross
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 8:43 am

    @ JG – Nice vent. We are witnessing history. It has only been about the last 200 years in civilization (spare a few small spaces in time) where republican-democracy has reigned, and with it, universal suffrage (really a 20th century phenomenon).

    But in the PC-world, such things may not be discussed politely.

  32. Cold Fury » You Win Some, You Lose Some
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 9:27 am

    […] Cassy Fiano and Stacy McCain) Comments (0) Trackbacks (0) Leave a comment Trackback Comments appear entirely at the […]

  33. Lessons from Adam Andrzejewski
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 11:29 am

    […] The Other McCain: Illinois Update: Brady Leads in GOP Gov. Race; Kirk Wins Senate Primary […]

  34. Michael Bates
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 7:57 pm

    A result like the Illinois GOP governor’s primary — five candidates within six points of each other — is why we need instant runoff voting. If Proft or Andrzejewski hadn’t run, who would have finished first? Instant runoff voting eliminates spoilers and allows voters to vote their conscience, rather than having to make tactical decisions based on fallible polls.

  35. Michael Bates
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 2:57 pm

    A result like the Illinois GOP governor’s primary — five candidates within six points of each other — is why we need instant runoff voting. If Proft or Andrzejewski hadn’t run, who would have finished first? Instant runoff voting eliminates spoilers and allows voters to vote their conscience, rather than having to make tactical decisions based on fallible polls.

  36. Ruby Slippers
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 6:40 pm

    Illinois Results…

    …

  37. In For The long Hall « The Camp Of The Saints [New Main Site]
    February 3rd, 2010 @ 7:43 pm

    […] As Stacy McCain commented [he live-blogged it]: In the end, the challenge for Tea Party activists in Illinois — as elsewhere — is to focus their energies toward the long, slow process of getting inside the regular GOP machinery. Over the past couple of years, Ron Paul’s supporters have discovered that in many instances, it takes only a half-dozen or so dedicated activists to capture a county Republican committee. Tea Party people can learn the same lesson. […]

  38. Flakes Mandate Journalist Repair to Alabama : The Other McCain
    February 7th, 2010 @ 12:17 am

    […] a few prisoners.The Lonely Cosnervative embeds Eye (Don’t) Witness News. Heh.Ubervu threadIllinois Update: Brady Leads in GOP Gov. Race; Kirk Wins Senate PrimaryJohn:Tea party candidate success, again.Bryan McRoberts:I voted for him today.Omnibus Driver:I […]