The Other McCain

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Election 2014 BREAKING: GOP Wins Senate Majority, @AoSHQDD Says

Posted on | November 4, 2014 | 88 Comments

UPDATE 11 p.m. ET: Always trust the reliable source:

It’s a blowout, folks. A total Republican wave.

UPDATE 1 a.m. ET: Did I say “wave”? No, it’s a tsunami:

UPDATE 9 p.m. ET: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell crushed Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky, apparently out-performing polls, perhaps signalling a “surge” for the GOP.

Meanwhile, in West Virginia, Republican Shelley Moore Capito defeats Democrat Natalie Tennant and Republican Tom Cotton has defeated incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor in Arkansas, so that the GOP so far has a net gain of two seats, needing four more pickups to get to the magic number of 51 to control the Senate.

* * * PREVIOUSLY (4 p.m. ET) * * *

Allahpundit summarizes the likely Senate scenario:

Right now the GOP has 45 seats. You can go ahead and bump that up to 48 because three pick-ups are a fait accompli: Steve Daines will win big in Montana, replacing Max Baucus; Mike Rounds will cruise in South Dakota, replacing Tim Johnson; and Shelley Moore Capito will enjoy a landslide in West Virginia, replacing Jay Rockefeller. With those three in the bank, getting to 51 early in the evening should be easy, no? Tom Cotton’s going to beat Mark Pryor in Arkansas for number 49. Joni Ernst is probably going to beat Bruce Braley in Iowa for number 50. And then Cory Gardner’s going to put Mark Uterus out of his misery in Colorado — or I will take a flamethrower to this place — for number 51. There’s our majority! But wait: If Greg Orman knocks off Pat Roberts in Kansas, as he’s (slightly) favored to do, that knocks us back down to 50. What then?
Well, there’s always Kentucky, where Mitch McConnell is expected to beat Alison Lundergan Grimes. But McConnell is simply protecting his seat; that’s not a pick-up, so we’re still stuck at 50. Ditto for Georgia: Even if David Perdue avoids a runoff and beats Michelle Nunn outright tonight, he’s simply holding Saxby Chambliss’s seat. No pick-up there either. We could get back to 51 if either Thom Tillis beats Kay Hagan in North Carolina or Scott Brown beats Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, but the Democratic incumbents are favored in both races. Assuming they win, we’re still stuck at 50.

Read the whole thing. Without checking my archives, I can assure you that I predicted this basic scenario weeks ago. It’s weird to have ignored all the cable-TV pundit hype about the campaign during the past month, and then return to the subject on Election Day and find out, yeah, all that hype didn’t really change anything.

Here’s my gut hunch: About midnight Eastern time, the cable-TV talking heads will have the GOP at 48 or 49 Senate seats. Election junkies will stay awake until the wee hours and maybe — just maybe — the GOP will get to 50 seats by the time we crash out at 3 a.m. ET. By lunchtime Wednesday, about three of those 50 GOP seats will be within the range of a mandatory recount, and MSNBC talking heads will be screaming “vote fraud” (meaning somehow Republicans cheated) despite the fact that, as every liberal knows, there is no such thing as “vote fraud” (if that phrase means Democrats cheating).

So, while both parties will be scrambling squadrons of lawyers to the recount states, everything will ultimately come down to (a) the possible runoff in Georgia, and (b) the absolutely guaranteed runoff in Louisiana. At best, the Republican majority will be 52-48. At worst, Harry Reid’s Democrats will maintain control by the narrowest of margins, either 51-49 or else 50-50 with Joe Biden casting the deciding vote to keep the Majority Leader’s gavel in Harry’s hand.

All of that’s just gut-hunch stuff, of course.

We’ll see how my shoot-from-the-hip gonzo forecast holds up against the “expert” talking heads on cable TV who have spent the past month wasting their time (and ours) by telling us basically nothing.

UPDATE: The usual suspects, the usual message:

In a recent Democratic National Committee email, actress Scarlett Johansson said if Republicans win control of the Senate they will take away a woman’s right to choose. . . .
In fact, in August she designed a t-shirt on behalf of the abortion giant. As LifeNews previously reported, the pink t-shirt read, “Hey Politicians! The 1950s called …” on the front. And on the back, the shirts say: “They want their sexism back!”  . . .
An article in the Washington Examiner shares more about Johansson’s letter. The author, Ashe Schow, wrote the following:

“Despite the Left’s insistence that abortion is one of the few things women voters care about, the word “abortion” rarely makes it into their campaign ads. The reason abortion supporters call themselves “pro-choice” is that they’d rather not say the word. Abortion isn’t actually as popular as they would have you believe — it doesn’t poll well, and other than the first three months of pregnancy, large majorities of Americans think it should be illegal.
And so it is with a recent Democratic National Committee email sent on behalf of actor Scarlett Johansson (Black Widow from “The Avengers”), which claimed that if the GOP wins control of the Senate, they will take away “a woman’s right to choose.”
The email vaguely describes that choice as the ‘right to make her own personal health care decisions,’ but never says that the only decision they mean is abortion.

Experts predict a big win tonight for heteronormative patriarchy. And you know what that means? Prepare to be oppressed, ladies.

 

Category: Election, Harry Reid, Mitch McConnell, Senate

Comments

88 Responses to “Election 2014 BREAKING: GOP Wins Senate Majority, @AoSHQDD Says”

  1. Steve Skubinna
    November 5th, 2014 @ 2:23 am

    And don’t forget the beer!

  2. Steve Skubinna
    November 5th, 2014 @ 2:25 am

    I like grilled cheese on sourdough. Tillamook sharp cheddar. With sliced dill pickles in them. And i make them way better than any feminist could, because I do not fear the kitchen and am comfortable in my own skin.

    Sorry ladies, it’s science. You can’t argue with science.

  3. MrPaulRevere
    November 5th, 2014 @ 2:25 am

    The happiest man in D.C. tonight is without a doubt Charles Schumer. In any event its VERY gratifying to see the political winds can still rapidly and dramatically change direction.

  4. Steve Skubinna
    November 5th, 2014 @ 2:31 am

    “Women’s health” means infanticide, that’s all. It is the only issue women care about, ever. Apparently they have no other issues of concern, which is great for them.

    For some reason they won’t shut up about breast cancer, though, but that is apparently not a health issue. So far as I can tell it has something to do with wearing pink shirts and walking. So it must fall under the categories of fashion and fitness. Some women also mention osteoporosis, no idea in what context but obviously not health.

  5. JeffS
    November 5th, 2014 @ 2:31 am

    This is good news — Filthy Harry gets kicked out of his position. But not out of office, alas.

    In the “One Step Backwards” category, I-594 (a draconian gun ownership clamp down financed by billionaires) passed in Washington State. The competing measure, I-591, did not pass.

  6. Adobe_Walls
    November 5th, 2014 @ 3:42 am

    Congratulations!

  7. Adobe_Walls
    November 5th, 2014 @ 3:46 am

    We haven’t heard the end of that. As I recall Washington state Law Enforcement has stated that it’s unenforceable. Was it clear which measure was which.

  8. Steve Skubinna
    November 5th, 2014 @ 3:54 am

    That pisses me off too, but now it’s time for the courts. Snarl the bastards up in the judiciary.

    And I have a bad feeling there might be a boating accident in my future. I have to transport my entire gun safe across Hood Canal in my canoe.

  9. Fail Burton
    November 5th, 2014 @ 4:31 am

    Every post you write about the real war in America – the war on principle, the war between identity and principle – drives one more nail in the coffin of the sick cult that has overwhelmed parts of America’s institutions.

    The PC cannot fight reason, quotes, facts, logic and humor. None of that is available to them. The trends, institutions and systems they write about are made up out of their heads. They are taking a thing like Jim Crow, including gays and women in it, and stretching it a half-century into the future and all over America.

    The PC are liars and you have shown exactly how they are liars.

  10. Fail Burton
    November 5th, 2014 @ 4:33 am

    Not making that woman sandwiches will save her life. I could threaten her merely by wishing she played a softball double-header.

  11. Daniel Freeman
    November 5th, 2014 @ 4:36 am

    #SorryNotSorry but I have to be that guy. Do you know what the Coburn Omnibus was? Do you understand why it existed? Did you know that it failed?

    In our dysfunctional system, it literally only takes one Senator to kill anything. Congratulations; you can now look forward to a whole lotta nothin’.

    All of the talk of passing lots of bills for Obama to veto are just daydreams.

  12. Quartermaster
    November 5th, 2014 @ 4:51 am

    LA will probably go R in the runoff, and AK will probably go R as well. I have a feeling Gillespie won’t pull it out in VA. So it looks like R-54, D-46 at this point, almost a complete inversion.

  13. Quartermaster
    November 5th, 2014 @ 4:53 am

    Hard to misspell Bier.

  14. Quartermaster
    November 5th, 2014 @ 5:01 am

    No, I don’t know what the Coburn Omnibus is.

  15. Quartermaster
    November 5th, 2014 @ 5:07 am

    At this point it looks like R-54. I don’t think Gillespie will pull it out. At 12K down, it isn’t likely with 95% in.

  16. Kirby McCain
    November 5th, 2014 @ 5:26 am

    Why does everyone forget the New England indie senators? Reid can flip them with the promise of a prominent chairmanship and hang on to the gavel.

  17. Adobe_Walls
    November 5th, 2014 @ 6:07 am

    Do you know what the Coburn Omnibus is?

  18. Adobe_Walls
    November 5th, 2014 @ 6:18 am

    The Indies are counted as Social Democrats in almost all the reporting. AS it now stands the pubs have 52 (and should have 53 in a couple hours) the dems have 43 plus the two indies. As of 5:16 am VA and Alaska haven’t been called At RCP and LA will go to a runoff.

  19. trangbang68
    November 5th, 2014 @ 8:21 am

    Wait, who’s that guy in the lower right hand corner of the Chrissie Matthews montage? Looks pretty glum. Maybe whatever ran down Chrissie’s leg got on the guy’s shoes.

  20. Quartermaster
    November 5th, 2014 @ 8:41 am

    Pickles on grilled cheese? Next thing you’re gonna tell us you like Peanut Butter-Banana sandwiches.

  21. Bob Belvedere
    November 5th, 2014 @ 9:01 am

    But is he conservative? I didn’t follow the race.

  22. Bob Belvedere
    November 5th, 2014 @ 9:02 am

    It happened to Jeff Goldstein: it can happen TO YOU.

  23. Paul Zummo
    November 5th, 2014 @ 9:24 am

    Probably as conservative as we could get here.

  24. Shawny
    November 5th, 2014 @ 9:35 am

    Trust me, I live here, it’s NOT enforceable. I-594 was to require background checks on all gun transfers, not just sales. I-591 was to reject any new gun restrictions or regulations proposed by the state unless they were to comply with federal law.

  25. Adobe_Walls
    November 5th, 2014 @ 10:11 am

    A law that can only be enforced capriciously becomes an equal protection issue.

  26. Adobe_Walls
    November 5th, 2014 @ 10:12 am

    Absolutely!

  27. It Was A Bad Night for Me But A Great Night For America | The Lonely Conservative
    November 5th, 2014 @ 10:16 am

    […] my town it was a long shot. But I sure did pick a good night to lose an election because there was so much more to be happy about. John Katko handily ousted Rep. Dan Maffei, and was extremely gracious in his victory speech. In […]

  28. JeffS
    November 5th, 2014 @ 10:18 am

    I594 is what the LEOs don’t like. It’s not enforceable at all, and that may be irrelevant. One aspect of the law is that any background check for a transfer can become an expedition to find a reason for you to NOT own firearms, with confiscation by law enforcement a real possibility.

    On the other hand, overloading the legal system AND law suits may well take the edge off this stupid law. We’ll have to see.

    But expect significant civil disobedience on this, gun grabbers.

  29. JeffS
    November 5th, 2014 @ 10:19 am

    For me, it’s the Snake River. Or the Columbia. Pesky things, canoes.

  30. Quartermaster
    November 5th, 2014 @ 11:15 am

    Such Depravity!!!

  31. Adobe_Walls
    November 5th, 2014 @ 11:58 am

    Think about that for a moment, consider what some of the folks in the news of late might do with a banana, or the peanut butter for matter. Making a sammich is really pretty tame.
    (sorry I just had to go there)

  32. Bob Belvedere
    November 5th, 2014 @ 12:14 pm

    Hopefully more conservative than Charlie Baker in Mass. – who is a true RINO.

  33. Quartermaster
    November 5th, 2014 @ 2:18 pm

    You, sir, are truly depraved!

  34. Zohydro
    November 5th, 2014 @ 3:34 pm

    Makes me look like a bloody saint!

  35. Steve Skubinna
    November 5th, 2014 @ 7:10 pm

    But very reliable, within their limitations.

    Like, say, if you absolutely HAVE to have a boating accident…

  36. Bob Belvedere
    November 5th, 2014 @ 8:13 pm

    Good. We need more CD is all areas.

    OUTLAW!

  37. Katie Scarlet
    November 5th, 2014 @ 10:36 pm

    I don’t think this one quite worked out either.

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