The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

OHIO OR BOSTON?

Posted on | November 4, 2012 | 40 Comments

BLUE ASH, Ohio
Ali Akbar stayed up all night crunching numbers for an election analysis that’s going to blow some peoples’ minds later today. A few hints:

Is the media trying to play a Jedi mind-trick on us? Have the manufacturers of the Conventional Wisdom sold us a prefabricated narrative about a surge of enthusiasm for Obama, with the intent of using bandwagon psychology to discourage Republicans and tip undecided voters toward the Democrat?

Does a wild bear defecate in the forest?

In some future textbook about media bias, it will be noted that on the Sunday before Election Day 2012, a New York Times article about get-out-the-vote operations in Ohio buried this fact in the 57th paragraph:

“This is the first time in many cycles that the Republican presidential campaign has emphasized door-knocking over phone banks,” [Romney campaign Ohio field director Scott] Jennings said. Across Ohio, he said, Mr. Romney’s campaign is knocking on 19 times as many doors as Senator John McCain’s campaign did four years ago.

As Perry White of the Daily Planet might say, “Great Caesar’s ghost!” Isn’t this the most important fact in the entire story, Lois Lane? A historically unprecedented Republican door-to-door canvassing operation in what both sides agree is the most crucial swing state of them all? And this is in the 57th paragraph?

Meanwhile, last night, Nate Silver increased his Magical Projection Model™ number to better than 4-to-1 odds against a Romney win.

The question that faces us today — and I’m gonna need a nap at some point, after Ali woke me up before 8 a.m. with his numbers — is whether:

  • A. We should stick with our original plan to drive to Boston for Romney’s Tuesday night victory celebration; or
  • B. Ride it out here in Ohio all the way, and attend Tuesday’s Ohio victory party at the Renaissance Hotel in Columbus?

Let the readers and tip-jar hitters decide.

Either way, we’re going all the way to Election Night until this campaign (and, if need be, the recount) is over.




 

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Category: Election 2012, Fear. Loathing., Ohio, Polls

Comments

40 Responses to “OHIO OR BOSTON?”

  1. Mark Anderson
    November 4th, 2012 @ 11:57 am

    To say that Nate Silver’s method is magical just shows why only 6% of scientists are Republican. See you Tuesday.

  2. Steven_W
    November 4th, 2012 @ 12:04 pm

    Hey – we’re Americans – with the magic of television – can’t you do both? GO R&R GO!

  3. datechguy
    November 4th, 2012 @ 12:14 pm

    If you end up staying their then I’ll skip Dixville Knoch but if you come here I’ll hit it with you

  4. joethefatman
    November 4th, 2012 @ 12:37 pm

    57th paragraph for 57 states?

  5. Buge Halls
    November 4th, 2012 @ 12:40 pm

    As soon as I saw the article by Nate Silver on his website that said Friday’s jobs report (with 171,000 jobs created) was “reasonably strong” I knew this guy was yet one more leftist shill! 171,000 jobs created and 170,000 new jobless claims is considered “reasonably strong”? Hah!

  6. Mike Rogers
    November 4th, 2012 @ 12:57 pm

    Happy to see you if you make it here, but I’ll also enjoy the on-the-ground reports from Ohio.
    Let me know. Also, if you make a mad dash last minute to dixville notch, I’ll try to help with accom en route.

  7. Wombat_socho
    November 4th, 2012 @ 1:00 pm

    Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

  8. rosalie
    November 4th, 2012 @ 1:04 pm

    Let’s hope it’s a decisive victory for us and we don’t have to go through the agony of a recount. “Does a wild bear defecate in the forest?” Yes, but they have been known to defecate on front lawns in residential areas too. That happened to us twice.

  9. Charles
    November 4th, 2012 @ 1:08 pm

    Do you want to party, gloat, or lick you wounds?

  10. jwallin
    November 4th, 2012 @ 1:09 pm

    “I’d say there’s an 85.1% likelihood of that Tuesday.”

    I am revising Stacy’s figure to 85.135% likelihood of the media destroying their own credibility.

    (Because a pulling-it-out-of-my-ass number sounds soooo much more scientific carried out to 3 decimal places.)

    /off channeling nate silver

  11. Dobby
    November 4th, 2012 @ 1:10 pm

    There’s a 99.7% chance that Nate Silver will be no longer be taken seriously after Tuesday.

  12. steveb
    November 4th, 2012 @ 1:29 pm

    This will be a blowout for President Romney. President Romney… I love the sound of that.

  13. steveb
    November 4th, 2012 @ 1:36 pm

    And which blatantly dishonest media organ of the party of liars told you that figure? Is that your way of telling yourself you’re smarter than republicans? I mean, any fool could see the results the last 4 years of your ” superior intelligence”, but somehow…you can’t. Click your heels three times, Dorothy. You’re in for a very bad day on Tuesday.

  14. htowt
    November 4th, 2012 @ 1:41 pm

    Stacy:

    We’ve got Colorado, too.
    http://www.anti-republicanculture.com/2012/10/turnout.html

  15. richard mcenroe
    November 4th, 2012 @ 1:44 pm

    I believe that’s “6% of scientists sucking on the gummint/academia teat…” FIFY

  16. richard mcenroe
    November 4th, 2012 @ 1:44 pm

    94% of Democratic scientists working for the gummint & FEMA were suprised a hurricane caused flooding.

  17. Soylent Green
    November 4th, 2012 @ 1:56 pm

    I’d say stay in Ohio. The booze is cheaper. So is everything else.

  18. Kerry Dar-Du
    November 4th, 2012 @ 1:57 pm

    Kerry Dar-Du liked this on Facebook.

  19. MM
    November 4th, 2012 @ 3:05 pm

    Ohio. A Noreaster is headed towards New England.

  20. Adjoran
    November 4th, 2012 @ 3:19 pm

    Apparently all this hype and the joke polling has created a situation where nearly all of Obama’s supporters are convinced he will win. Some are threatening to riot if he doesn’t.

    Shoot rioters on sight, shoot looters to kill, no taxpayer money to rebuild when rioters destroy their own neighborhoods again.

  21. slp
    November 4th, 2012 @ 3:23 pm

    You should stay in Ohio and report what is happening on the ground.

  22. Rich Vail
    November 4th, 2012 @ 3:34 pm

    While staying OH would be sweet…I suspect being near the candidate would be best for your reporting.

  23. riverlifecallie
    November 4th, 2012 @ 3:42 pm

    I vote for Boston because I would love to have your “in person” take on President Romney’s victory celebration – with pictures.

  24. Dianna Deeley
    November 4th, 2012 @ 4:06 pm

    If he wants to lick wounds, he should be in California. It’s going to be a bittersweet night out here.

  25. Dianna Deeley
    November 4th, 2012 @ 4:09 pm

    Ohio. It’s where the action will be.

    In a way, it’s almost strange to think of Romney waiting for the victory party in Boston – it’s going to be rather like California, in that it won’t stop being Democrat, even if Romney wins.

  26. Jackie Wellfonder
    November 4th, 2012 @ 4:16 pm

    I commented on Ali’s FB too, while I’d love you guys to stay in Ohio to keep an eye on things, I wouldn’t want to miss the VICTORY party for the world 😉 Off to Boston!!

  27. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    November 4th, 2012 @ 5:05 pm

    I do love pudding.

  28. Finrod Felagund
    November 4th, 2012 @ 5:28 pm

    My $0.03 would be that if you think Ohio is won, then go to Boston. If not, then stay in Ohio because that is where the action will be.

  29. Finrod Felagund
    November 4th, 2012 @ 5:30 pm

    Oh, and one of the standard election correlations: the Washington Redskins winning their final home game before the election favors the incumbent, and they lost to Carolina 13-21.

  30. tomg
    November 4th, 2012 @ 5:37 pm

    Boston. When you’re done reporting, you can step outside and gloat.

  31. Bob Belvedere
    November 4th, 2012 @ 6:57 pm

    He’s right! Priorities, Stacy, priorities.

  32. Bob Belvedere
    November 4th, 2012 @ 6:58 pm

    If they’re not rioting in Boston.

  33. Soylent Green
    November 4th, 2012 @ 7:25 pm

    You may find this of interest….

    http://sonofsoylentgreen.wordpress.com/2012/11/04/the-necessarily-skyrocket-ad-began-airing-in-the-pittsburgh-tv-market-yesterday/

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    […] More here. -R.J. Lower Share this:TwitterFacebookLike this:LikeBe the first to like this. from → 2012 Presidential Race, Barack Obama, OIHO ← Are you in Cincinnati, #OIHO? You just might be an operative No comments yet […]

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  37. ChuckUnderscore
    November 5th, 2012 @ 8:16 pm

    Please come to Boston. It will be worth the trip.

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  40. Coast to Coast
    November 9th, 2012 @ 3:33 am

    Ha Ha Ha.. I didn’t think it could be true but you guys really thought you were going to win – and never bothered analysing the polls… Seriously???