The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

‘Media Credibility Day Is Coming’

Posted on | October 14, 2012 | 23 Comments

When the Associated Press finally took notice of “surging” crowds at Romney-Ryan rallies, Da Tech Guy laughed — like me, he’s covered multiple Romney campaign events and had seen big, enthusiastic crowds all along. Now Sam Youngman of Reuters takes notice:

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is recovering ground in the critical swing state of Ohio as he rises in the polls and crowd numbers swell after his strong debate performance last week against President Barack Obama.
Despite pundits and pollsters dismissing Romney’s chances in the state in late September, the Republican is now either tied or just barely trailing Obama in Ohio ahead of the next presidential debate on Tuesday night.
At an event with thousands of Ohioans on Friday night, Romney boasted of “a growing crescendo of enthusiasm.” He has spoken to several large audiences in Ohio this week.
“(Obama’s) campaign is about smaller and smaller things, and our campaign is about bigger and bigger crowds fighting for a bright future,” he said on Saturday.

Polls are lagging indicators, and it is the trend that matters. The RCP average for Ohio has Obama leading 1.7 points, whereas the lead was 5.5 points on Oct. 3. The latest poll from the Democrat firm PPP has Obama still leading Ohio by 5 points, which goes to show you: Don’t let polls freak you out.

 

Category: Da Tech Guy, Election 2012, Ohio, Polls

Comments

23 Responses to “‘Media Credibility Day Is Coming’”

  1. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    October 14th, 2012 @ 9:31 am

    Even Zogby notices it…Ohio is an uphill battle for Obama

  2. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    October 14th, 2012 @ 9:34 am

    And let’s not forget Joe Biden saying what he meant: That they are not going to order any more Ohio made M-1 tanks!

  3. rosalie
    October 14th, 2012 @ 9:59 am

    “media” and “credibility” do not belong in the same sentence.

  4. Charles Purvis
    October 14th, 2012 @ 10:02 am

    Well, and if you read the PPP news release, it says that Romney leads 51-45 among “remaining” voters. Their trick this time around seems to be to inflate the impact of early voting, which they ludicrously claim is trending 76-24 for Obama. Without that special sauce, the poll would have read much much differently.

  5. Adobe_Walls
    October 14th, 2012 @ 11:04 am

    If “Media Creditability Day” means a day when the “media” becomes “creditable” I ain’t holding my breath.

  6. Media Credibility Day Preview, the AP discovers Romney's Crowds » Da Tech Guy's Blog
    October 14th, 2012 @ 11:10 am

    […] Stacy gets it Polls are lagging indicators, and it is the trend that matters. The RCP average for Ohio has Obama […]

  7. Thane_Eichenauer
    October 14th, 2012 @ 11:43 am

    The US government needs another 1,000 M-1 tanks like Russia needs 1,000 T-90 tanks. IMO.

  8. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    October 14th, 2012 @ 11:56 am

    Obama should make that point in Ohio. And then he should triangulate and say he wants to cut Big Bird too.

  9. Thane_Eichenauer
    October 14th, 2012 @ 12:08 pm

    That Big Bird comment is interpreted oddly. The modern day liberal lobby presumes to take an end to PBS subsidies to mean that Big Bird must die. I have yet to have any living breathing human tell me that an end to the PBS subsidy would mean Big Bird would disappear. Long live Big Bird (in a free market)! I love Grover!

  10. Heimdall
    October 14th, 2012 @ 2:07 pm

    I posted this at Ace’s website about the PPP poll:

    So PPP for Ohio has Obama 51% to Romney 46%:

    1. Oversampled women. 53/47. Last two elections were 52/48.

    2. Really undersampled independents at 24% when the lowest seen in the last four years in exit polling was 28% in 2010. Independents are going for Romney in most polls by over 10%. Even this poll has him winning over Obama by 6.

    3.
    I bet these independents are Dem leaning. Even so, Romney is leading
    them by five. When in most other polling of Ohio shows him leading by a
    much larger amount. PPP consistently shows independents more favorable
    to Obama.

    4. They have a D/R/I split of 40/36/24. They are

    projecting a record electorate turnout of Democrats with +1 greater than 2008 and with the
    Republican turnout of 2010. In order to do that they butcher
    independents.

    5. They are predicting nearly the EXACT opposite of

    the 2004 election for Obama. In 2004 the D/R/I was 35/40/25. Ohio’s
    voter registration numbers indicate R+1.

    6. They are projecting nearly the SAME RESULTS as the 2008 election. With a
    split of D+4, Obama is winning with nearly the same margins he did in 2008. In
    2008, with a D+8, Obama wins by 4, yet in 2012 with a D+4, Obama wins by
    5? No way.

    7. Ohio’s early voting 2012 VS 2008 early voting is showing a nearly 10%
    swing from the registered democrat totals to registered republican
    totals. Republican turnout is near 120% to 140% in many counties vs 2008.

    9. Speaking of splits, PPP is
    now finding that Republicans are crossing over to VOTE for Obama at
    nearly 11% while Democrats are only crossing over to vote for Romney at
    8%. In 2008 this was reversed. With Independents going to Romney 50-44
    with undecideds at 5% he could win them 53-46 on election day. If you
    correct this crossover vote to even 2008’s numbers, you get a close
    Romney victory at 51% to Obama’s 49% EVEN USING THIS POLL SPLIT of
    40/36/24!

  11. Adjoran
    October 14th, 2012 @ 3:01 pm

    After making the argument that federal subsidies only amount to 0.000000000001% of the PBS budget for 99th time, even the head of PBS had to admit they don’t really even need the taxpayer money.

    From my point of view, they should have been zeroed out at that moment.

  12. Adjoran
    October 14th, 2012 @ 3:07 pm

    They also said the MOE for the poll of early voters is 10% – then make the claim that since Obama’s lead is higher than that, the poll is still significant.

    Nope. MOE that high indicates a sample too small for accurate measures. Sorry, PPP, it was a nice try.

  13. Heimdall
    October 14th, 2012 @ 3:12 pm

    The Ohio early vote totals are contradicting what they are finding anyways. 14% adv for democrats 2008 VS 6% adv in 2012. That is their only hope is that the early vote boosts Obama up enough to win over Romney. Won’t happen as democrats have underperformed in Ohio VS the national polling in every election over the last twenty four years. The national polling has Romney up by 2, so Ohio will have Romney up by 3-4 if the trend holds.

  14. Bob Belvedere
    October 14th, 2012 @ 4:24 pm

    I love Grover!
    As long long as you don’t mean that Dhimmi Norquist, I agree.
    http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/individualProfile.asp?indid=2508

  15. Bob Belvedere
    October 14th, 2012 @ 4:25 pm

    SIDENOTE: One thing that doesn’t get mentioned when people mention that, if PBS goes away, we won’t have shows in TV like Downton Abbey, is that, in Britain, it’s shown with commercials.

  16. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    October 14th, 2012 @ 11:52 pm

    You walk a 1000 miles one step at a time. PBS is just one step. And many of us would contribute to PBS (especially if they threw us a bone like bringing back Firing Line with some new conservative blood). But I could not have to see my tax dollars go fund it. It can fund itself.

    And here is a little secret about PBS, those videos hey sell? The producers, such as Bill Moyers, get to keep all of that. None of it goes to PBS. Now I am all for Ken Burns making $$$ off his DVDs, but let’s not kid ourselves they are in it for the money. They could toss a few bucks to Sesame Street too.

  17. Thane_Eichenauer
    October 15th, 2012 @ 12:39 am

    I would just as well prefer President Grover Cleveland. He opposed business bailouts and foreign adventurism.

  18. Bill Safreed
    October 15th, 2012 @ 12:48 pm

    People in my area were eager to turn out for Romney/Ryan last Friday in Lancaster, OH. Just like the Chik fil a turn out, we are eager to do something to counter Obama.

  19. actionsspeaklouder
    October 15th, 2012 @ 7:39 pm

    I love Downton Abbey. PBS won’t go away – it will just have to depend on strictly “public” contributions. They will do just fine.

  20. Did You Say ‘Preference Cascade’? : The Other McCain
    October 16th, 2012 @ 10:59 am

    […] 14: ‘Media Credibility Day Is Coming’Oct. 11: Benghazi Breakdown: Team Obama, Liberals Now in Full Freak-Out ModeOct. 9: Expect the […]

  21. Did You Say ‘Preference Cascade’? : The Other McCain
    October 16th, 2012 @ 10:59 am

    […] 14: ‘Media Credibility Day Is Coming’Oct. 11: Benghazi Breakdown: Team Obama, Liberals Now in Full Freak-Out ModeOct. 9: Expect the […]

  22. Mike55_Mahoney
    October 17th, 2012 @ 3:39 pm

    The MSM is maneuvering to make a trade. They will deliver a corronation if Obama will erect high barriers to entry in the media sector. They could care less who wins as long as they retain power and profit.

  23. Signs and Omens: Obama’s Fading Hope and the Graveyard Whistling Choir : The Other McCain
    October 23rd, 2012 @ 9:13 pm

    […] Let the Great 2012 Liberal Freak-Out Begin!Oct. 15: Did You Say ‘Preference Cascade’?Oct. 14: ‘Media Credibility Day Is Coming’Oct. 11: Benghazi Breakdown: Team Obama, Liberals Now in Full Freak-Out ModeOct. 9: Expect the […]