The Other McCain

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Liberals Beginning to Realize They’ve Overestimated Obama’s Popularity?

Posted on | October 8, 2012 | 170 Comments

A steady drip, drip, drip of polling data — including a new Battleground poll showing Democrats on the losing side of an “enthusiasm gap” — has started to undermine the carefully maintained perception of Obama’s re-election as inevitable. Ed Morrissey comments:

If Obama trails in a D+8 poll by 6 among the extremely likely voters with four weeks to go, he’s in deep trouble — and his debate performance certainly won’t boost him.

Meanwhile, also via Hot Air, we find the WaPo’s Chris Cilizza as the first liberal analyst to try getting ahead of the chance that Obama might lose:

Obama’s debate performance also raised a bigger question: Is he overrated as a candidate?
Four years ago, that question would have been unimaginable …
Fast-forward to this campaign — and specifically its last two major public events — and you see Obama’s flaws as a candidate in starker relief.
His acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention was flat and, rhetorically, felt like a patchwork effort — five or six different speeches all clumped into a single address. His debate performance was glum and defensive, leaving anyone who watched with the overwhelming sense that the president would have rather been anywhere but sharing the stage with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney (R).

That the question “would have been unimaginable” in 2008 is likely a result of Cillizza having his head inside the liberal media echo chamber where never was heard a discouraging word about Obama. Democrats were pumped up and eager for action after eight years of Bush, and having a completely untested candidate allowed them to project onto Obama whatever they wished to see there. If you bought into that hype (as Cillizza evidently did), then it was easy to imagine Obama the Light-Bringer riding to glory astride a flying unicorn, eating Magic Peace Flakes for breakfast and farting rainbows all day long.

Reality? What a bummer. It’s like the old joke: What did the Grateful Dead fan say after the dope wore off? “Dude, this band sucks.”

Two weeks ago, I warned that Democrats were “spiking the ball early,” but they didn’t listen to me then, and I don’t expect them to listen now. Cillizza is shrewd enough to see the value of hedging his bets, being one of the first liberal media types to warn of the possible defeat ahead, but Nate Silver seems unwilling to kick the Kool-Aid habit just yet.

Remember that a month ago, Silver gave 4-to-1 odds against Romney. Nate’s confidence is quietly fading, as he starts to wonder what excuses he’ll make on Nov. 7 if he has to explain why he was wrong.

“Ride Right Through Them — They’re Demoralized as Hell!”

UPDATE (Smitty): Welcome, Instapundit readers.

Category: Barack Obama, Ed Morrissey, Election 2012, Polls

Comments

170 Responses to “Liberals Beginning to Realize They’ve Overestimated Obama’s Popularity?”

  1. UserSix
    October 21st, 2012 @ 1:47 am

    Oh F, its closing in on 2AM….my kids will be pouncing on my head shorty…bed time. Wonder if I will dream of a Hippy Kid dressed as an Indian flipping me a peace sign or a big bald Waxman. #WhatDreamsMayCome. Guten Nacht my friends. Stay Thirsty.

  2. Boon Companion
    October 21st, 2012 @ 1:49 am

    Sleep tight Six. Don’t let the Mafia Name Generator bite. http://gangstaname.com/names/mafia

  3. twinx
    October 21st, 2012 @ 1:50 am

    The guy at the main desk is passed out drunk and under his console, snoring.

  4. UserSix
    October 21st, 2012 @ 1:51 am

    LOL You can call me Claudio Rubberneck now.

  5. Boon Companion
    October 21st, 2012 @ 1:53 am

    That’s Double Barrel Alfredo. He has my keys in his breast pocket. They’re the ones with the fuzzy Dick Polman keychain. http://www.winonadailynews.com/news/opinion/editorial/columnists/colothers/article_88b729c6-f4b1-11e1-b08f-001a4bcf887a.html

  6. Boon Companion
    October 21st, 2012 @ 1:55 am

    Impressive. I like it! With a name like that, even your nightmares will be scared of you.

  7. twinx
    October 21st, 2012 @ 1:57 am

    LOL. If it’s the kid w/the peace sign, it’ll qualify as a NIGHTMARE. G’nite John-boy.

  8. Sheik Yerbouti
    October 21st, 2012 @ 1:58 am

    Close.
    I’m a Pict.

  9. twinx
    October 21st, 2012 @ 1:58 am

    Mine’s no fun: Nice Guy Rose. WTF is that supposed to mean?

  10. Boon Companion
    October 21st, 2012 @ 2:01 am

    I always thought the war between the Picts and the Tiffs was an unnecessary one.

  11. Boon Companion
    October 21st, 2012 @ 2:03 am

    Yeah, but the crime name for Nice Guy Rose is Third Leg Mario. So that leaves you with some wiggle room.

  12. twinx
    October 21st, 2012 @ 2:03 am

    Holy cow! You don’t run around nekkid, painted blue, do you?

  13. Sheik Yerbouti
    October 21st, 2012 @ 2:12 am

    But of course. Doesn’t everyone?

  14. Sheik Yerbouti
    October 21st, 2012 @ 2:15 am

    Unnecessary, but gloriously brutal. As was the Jpeg conflict.

  15. Boon Companion
    October 21st, 2012 @ 2:20 am

    Bwahahaha! “Unnecessary, but gloriously brutal.” And unrealistic, I might add. The Jpeg conflict appeared to be internally provoked by the Jpg faction.

  16. UserSix
    October 21st, 2012 @ 1:43 pm

    http://thetrenches.us/2012/07/trenches-labs-how-twittergulag-works-part-1-setting-reply-traps/

  17. twinx
    October 21st, 2012 @ 3:40 pm

    LOL. I hope you at least wear your headgear while doing so!

  18. Boon Companion
    October 21st, 2012 @ 6:15 pm

    Informative.

  19. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    October 30th, 2012 @ 1:30 pm

    Nate Silver is still giving a 75% chance of an Obama victory. I am worried about Ohio, but anyone who has a secret system better have it pan out with election results. Otherwise it is going to be considered about as reliable as some Gypsy fortune teller.

  20. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    October 30th, 2012 @ 1:31 pm

    Absolutely right. Don’t get cocky. Vote early. And if you are in Chicago, vote often (kidding, just catch the Dems breaking the law, don’t break it yourself).