The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

A Santorum Miracle? ‘So Be It,’ Says Mitt

Posted on | March 14, 2012 | 31 Comments

“Romney campaign says losing nomination would take ‘act of God'”
— MSNBC, March 7

“Senator Santorum is at the desperate end of his campaign . . . He’s far behind in the delegate count, far behind in the popular vote count. If you look at the math, it’s a very difficult road for him.”
— Mitt Romney, March 13

“So far we have two, two and half times as many delegates as he has, millions of more votes than he has. . . . If he is able to pull off a miracle, then so be it.”
— Mitt Romney, March 12

Saw that last quote via It’s Only Words, who offers some excellent advice for Mitt Romney, although I’m not sure that he’s in a mood to listen. Nevertheless, there is evidence that despite all the bold talk of Romney’s “inevitability,” Team Mitt’s starting to sweat:

Romney was not planning to visit Illinois until Monday. Now, he adds a Friday morning campaign stop before flying to Puerto Rico.

Having complained bitterly about some of the Santorum campaign’s bungles, it is an undeniable fact that Santorum’s success is beginning to push the Romney campaign up against Mitt’s inherent limitations. If Santorum can keep up the pressure, it’s possible that Team Mitt could commit the kind of error that might turn the tide against Mr. Inevitable. And, regardless of what you may have heard, Romney is much weaker than the delegate-counters want to admit.

To illustrate why Republicans should be worried about Romney’s “inevitability,” here is the Wall Street Journal‘s delegate count:

Romney ……… 495 (53%)
Santorum ……. 252 (27%)
Gingrich …….. 131 (14%)
Paul ……………. 48 (5%)

 Via Dan McLaughlin at Red State, here are the vote totals to date:

Romney ……… 3,513,994 (38%)
Santorum ……. 2,405,653 (26%)
Gingrich ……… 2,094,267 (23%)
Paul ……………… 974,855 (11%)

So, while Romney currently has 53% of delegates, he has less than 40% of actual votes. Santorum has 27% of delegates and 26% of votes.

Why the extra delegate edge for Romney? Because Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul have drastically underperformed in terms of delegate count: Between them, Newt and Paul have 34% of the votes, but only 19% of delegates, so that votes for either of them have had the practical effect of adding delegates for Romney!

More troubling, however, as Dan McLaughlin further demonstrates, is that Romney’s popularity is actually declining among Republican voters as the campaign continues:

Romney’s share of the vote decreased every month, from 40.5% in January to 39.8% in February to 36.3% in March. This is not the kind of performance that you expect from a candidate capable of winning people over to his side. That spells trouble if Mitt wins the GOP nomination.

What happened to Newt? His January numbers were high because of his Jan. 21 win in South Carolina (243,172) and his second-place finish in Florida (533,117) on Jan. 31. February was a wipeout for Gingrich, while his March total was boosted by his win in Georgia, where he got 424,976 votes, 38% of his total for the month to date.

Compared to Gingrich, Santorum has run a far more balanced campaign: He has won in the Midwest, the West and South, and has won in both primaries and caucuses. In terms of viability as a national candidate, Gingrich’s campaign has been largely an illusion. He has never won a caucus, and just three primaries — South Carolina, Florida and Georgia, about 1.2 million votes — account for 57% of his total votes so far.

Newt Gingrich was interviewed tonight by Greta Van Sustern, who acted as if Newt were still viable after losing Mississippi and Alabama. However — excuse me for repeating this, but it is very important — the Gingrich campaign still hasn’t announced its February fundraising totals, and may now be teetering on the brink of financial collapse:

Santorum has run a relatively low-budget campaign throughout the primary season, but the campaign announced recently that it raised $9 million in February, as he rose in the polls.
Gingrich’s financial picture is considerably more murky.
Campaign fund-raising and spending reports for February are not due to the Federal Election Commission until next week, but the Gingrich campaign spent little money on advertising in Mississippi and Alabama, even as Gingrich was saying the states were crucial to his success.
And Winning Our Future, the pro-Gingrich Super PAC that has been propped up by nearly $11 million in donations from the family of Las Vegas casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, has reduced its advertising on TV and invested in less-expensive radio ads, suggesting the PAC could be running low on money.

In that context, here is Santorum strategist John Brabender on CNN:

American Power headlines this, “Pressure Increasing for Newt Gingrich to Step Aside in GOP Race,” but there’s no need to “pressure” Gingrich to do anything. Newt’s losing and his campaign is probably broke, and what’s important now is for Republican primary voters to understand that there is no longer any point in voting for Gingrich.

If you want to stop Romney, vote for Santorum — period.

So, what’s Romney up to? Raising money at the Waldorf Astoria in New York, which should tell you something about his situation.

“Mitt Romney proudly supported the Wall Street Bailout that rewarded the reckless behavior of Wall Street Insiders — at the expense of the American taxpayer. Now that his campaign is looking to get some fast cash — he returned to the very people who benefited from the bailout — that Romney supported.”
— Hogan Gidley, Santorum campaign spokesman

Meanwhile, Santorum is campaigning in Puerto Rico, and leaving the fundraising to his grassroots supporters: His online money bomb has raised nearly $1 million in the past 24 hours.

A “miracle”? No, but it’s got to have Romney worried.

UPDATE: From Shane Vander Hart, who was one of the first bloggers to endorse Rick Santorum:

We were told by Newt Gingrich’s campaign spokesperson, R.C. Hammond, that Mississippi and Alabama were must wins for Gingrich to be considered a credible candidate. Newt Gingrich is no longer a credible candidate after last night’s losses. Now he says the goal is to keep Mitt Romney from securing the 1144 delegates needed to win the nomination since he recognizes he can’t achieve that number himself.

Shane quotes Jamie Weinstein of the Daily Caller:

But if Newt can’t win Mississippi and Alabama, where will he win? . . .
He’s functionally done, not being able to beat a Northerner in his Southern backyard.

“Functionally done” is an apt description. And this result is not Jamie Weinstein’s fault. It’s not my fault. It’s not Rick Santorum’s fault. Unfortunately, some Gingrich supporters want to blame people who explain to them that Newt can’t win, as though he could win, if only we’d be quiet and pretend he could.

Lashing out at scapegoats is not a useful substitute for success.

Category: Election 2012, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum

Comments

31 Responses to “A Santorum Miracle? ‘So Be It,’ Says Mitt”

  1. Testor
    March 14th, 2012 @ 11:37 pm

    What someone needs to ask Santorum:

    Will you take the GOP nomination EVEN if you finish with less delegates and votes than Mitt Romney?

    I know the answer, it’s clear Santorum is hoping a smoke-filled room will give him the nod despite his 2nd place finish, but  even conservatives that may not like Romney have to admit it’s going to absolutely TEAR the GOP apart if the guy who comes in with FAR more delegates and votes somehow gets thrown off the ticket.

  2. DonaldDouglas
    March 14th, 2012 @ 11:47 pm

    Nice posting!!

  3. McGehee
    March 15th, 2012 @ 12:13 am

    Having the largest number of delegates, but still not a majority, doesn’t entitle anybody to anything. People with a right to care about the outcome know this.

  4. Gingrich Can Only Play Spoiler Against Santorum | Caffeinated Thoughts
    March 15th, 2012 @ 12:32 am

    […] Update: Maybe Romney will play audience to an “act of God.” […]

  5. ThePaganTemple
    March 15th, 2012 @ 12:53 am

    There’s probably not going to be any need for a brokered convention. By the time the WTA primaries commence in earnest, somebody is going to have the momentum to take them all the way to the convention. Even if they won’t have the exact number of votes required, they will be close enough there would be no reasonable, rational reason to not grant the person the nomination, since there should be enough open delegates left to fill the gap.

  6. CO
    March 15th, 2012 @ 1:20 am

    The Daily Caller has an interesting article about brokered conventions and how, at them, it will be the states controlling – not the GOP or GNC.  That is very appealing and may work to  Rick’s advantage

  7. Pathfinder's wife
    March 15th, 2012 @ 1:30 am

    The theme now is going to be coalition building — let’s see who can pass this test while still maintaining some semblance of individual integrity.

    The canidate who does that will gain the momentum — if nobody can, then a brokered convention just might happen.  Again, just mhao.

  8. Adjoran
    March 15th, 2012 @ 1:51 am

     True, if one candidate is within the number of open/unpledged/uncommitted delegates of a majority, they will be inclined to put him over.

    BUT if Romney were to really flail and flag down the stretch, they would certainly think twice about it:  you don’t want someone on a downward spiral at that late date.

  9. Adjoran
    March 15th, 2012 @ 2:11 am

    Much depends upon the rationale of the voters.  The biggest portion of the Santorum and Gingrich supporters aren’t so much for them as for a viable Not Romney.  Neither man is any stranger to the Republican voters:  Gingrich was all over the news for a decade, the face of the 1994 takeover, and Santorum was a young Senate star who made more Sunday talk show appearances than any other Republican while he was in office and was part of the leadership.

    Notice these familiar figures weren’t anywhere despite their name recognition.  First it was those not so well known nationally – Bachmann, Perry, and Cain.  It was only after voters soured on all of these new faces that they retreated to the old and familiar ones.

    Most of their voters aren’t saying “this is the best candidate for President,” which they could have done right away, they are saying “we wish for a viable conservative other than Romney.”

    The point being that as Gingrich began to look like a possible winner, he sank like a stone.  Whine all you want about Romney’s spending against him, that was in Florida but Newt dropped immediately nationally at the same time.  Will voters stick to Santorum if it appears he might actually win the nomination?

    That’s what we will find out:  is the resistance to Romney strong enough to nominate Santorum?  That’s what it is all about from here on in – Gingrich stays in, but has little effect now.  Adelson’s cutting him off, and he will have to run a pay-as-you-go shoestring effort.

  10. Adjoran
    March 15th, 2012 @ 2:16 am

    BTW, Gingrich and Paul have NOT “underperformed” in delegate share.  This is a very normal phenomenon.  Even proportional states don’t award anything under a certain level, and award bonus or statewide delegates to the overall winner (who also benefits from any rounding up).  So lesser candidates will always have a lower share of delegates than their share of popular vote, while the top one or two will earn more.

    You can earn a majority of delegates without a majority of the popular vote, because the popular vote only counts insofar as it awards delegates in individual states.  I think McCain had locked up a majority of delegates and was still well under half the vote, even though everyone but Huck had already quit.

  11. Depenguin
    March 15th, 2012 @ 2:44 am

    Romney is not going to energize the red states!  Why are we looking at which candidate is winining blue states for the republican nomination.  Most of those will flip Dem in the General.  We need the candidate that will shore up the base and Romney aint the one.  So perhaps we have to go to a brokered convention to get people to realize that the dems are salivating at the opportunity for our choice to be Romney.  Shoot, I could write their plan… Attack his religion- by super pac of course :), he supported bail out for Wall Street but not the auto bailout (support big money, not the working man), rommey care is obamacare, so why not choose the original.  Has net worth of 250 Million, so he cannot see the plight of the working man….. Just a sample … So don’t buy into the tripe that they are afraid of Romney, they are hoping for him.  Don’t listen to Shark jumpers like Ann Coulter etal that tell you he is our best choice.  McCain, Dole … how that that work out?

  12. Charles
    March 15th, 2012 @ 3:38 am

    Ronald Reagan won the states of Massachusetts and California in 1980 and 1984.

    You are not factoring in that many independents don’t really fully trust the Republican Party any more than the Democratic Party. That red state energizer you are talking about is Bob Dole, and look how that worked out.

  13. Adjoran
    March 15th, 2012 @ 5:08 am

     If you bothered to learn about the process instead of just ranting like a psycho, you would know that the Republican rules automatically adjust for red/blue states by awarding extra delegates for states which are more dependably Republican.  How do you suspect Georgia got so many more than Ohio?

  14. Adjoran
    March 15th, 2012 @ 5:13 am

    “Mitt Romney proudly
    supported the Wall Street Bailout that rewarded the reckless behavior of
    Wall Street Insiders — at the expense of the American taxpayer. Now
    that his campaign is looking to get some fast cash — he returned to the
    very people who benefited from the bailout — that Romney supported.”
    – Hogan Gidley, Santorum campaign spokesman

    Missed this the first time through.  The truth is that no TARP money to Wall Street bankers “rewarded … reckless behavior” at all – the capitalization crunch was caused by federal policies in the first place.  Also, every penny to the major banks was fully repaid on schedule and with interest, so taxpayers actually made a profit on the deal.Sounds like a Democratic spokesman.  Did Rick get him from a union or something?

  15. Bob Belvedere
    March 15th, 2012 @ 7:30 am

    Clear-headed.

  16. Bob Belvedere
    March 15th, 2012 @ 7:34 am

    What may play to Rick Santorum’s advantage is that he may be the last Not-Romney standing.  Where else do we go if we do to him what was done to Newton Leroy?

  17. Pathfinder's wife
    March 15th, 2012 @ 8:53 am

    That’s pretty much what I’ve been thinking would happen.
    Of course the Dems will go after Santorum and Gingrich with just as much gusto as well.  The big issue will be: which of the three (if any) would the GOP base only get more fired up about defending and which canidate would the average voter — including the middle and some of the Dems — come to sympathize more with (this is likely the way it will have to be handled) when the attack blitz starts happening, and which of the three would be the most effective canidate to weather said blitz?

  18. SDN
    March 15th, 2012 @ 8:56 am

    Romney’s popularity is actually declining among Republican voters as the campaign continues:

    Yet another similarity between Obama and his White Shadow….

  19. Pathfinder's wife
    March 15th, 2012 @ 9:05 am

    As an independent: hell no I don’t trust the Republican party or the majority of Republicans.  They are indeed just as bad as the Dems.

    But there are many ways to go about losing a voter’s confidence and trust — being too hard core is one of them (but the GOP has none of those in the race), being a person who appears to be a political whore obsessed with amassing only influence and winning is another.

    I love how many conservatives/Republicans misread independents/moderates sometimes: many are perhaps not so low information voter and many are less progressive and more patient with  traditional values canidates than actual conservatives/Republicans.
    I know some self-defined liberal Democrats who, if you take the time to speak to them, ascribe to more conservative social viewpoints than many of the now self-defined conservative Republicans.  Why are they Dems?  Family tradition, identity politics, personal scores to settle, fitting in with the in crowd, you name it but the big reason is that they stay put because they believe there are no differences in the parties and that government doesn’t listen anyway…the irony; it’s to die for.

  20. Pathfinder's wife
    March 15th, 2012 @ 9:13 am

    Adjoran, right or wrong, that is very much how it will play out though.  It is something that will have to be addressed.

  21. ThePaganTemple
    March 15th, 2012 @ 10:27 am

     Well, you’re either assuming I’m talking about Romney or you’re trying to get in a little dig there, but you do make a good point. Of course that kind of flail and flag down the stretch as you put it would have to be the result of that campaign with momentum, whoever he is, suddenly imploding, and that would possibly be due to oppo research with facts presented out of context, either an attempt by one of the candidates to gum up the works or by Democrats to wreak havoc at the convention. But its not unfeasible.

  22. ThePaganTemple
    March 15th, 2012 @ 10:30 am

     I’ve got a good used Michele Bachmann blow-up doll if you’re interested.

  23. ThePaganTemple
    March 15th, 2012 @ 10:38 am

     Sure he can energize the south. All he has to do is make a few trips down there, learn the right way to pronounce the word “Y’all” so it sounds natural to him, have him seen eating a big pile of grits, even go on a big sport fishing trip in the Gulf, or maybe duck hunting just like Live Shot Kerry, and talk about how he’s best buds with all the best Nascar sponsors, and he’ll energize them so much they’re liable to snatch him right up and run his ass right out.

  24. Finrod Felagund
    March 15th, 2012 @ 10:48 am

    In addition, Gingrich has seriously underperformed in the caucuses, where a lot less people vote; looking at vote totals alone undervalues the caucuses.
     

  25. richard mcenroe
    March 15th, 2012 @ 11:33 am

    deleted by author

  26. richard mcenroe
    March 15th, 2012 @ 11:33 am

     “MEG! MEG! MEG!”

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  29. serfer62
    March 15th, 2012 @ 1:25 pm

    With all the support mitts had at the start, especially from the establishment, he took an early lead.
    However as The Squeesh became apparent he started losing.
    A Contested Convention is a good thing overriding money, establishment & BS.
    And from the floor comes a name…Sarah

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