The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

How Many GOP Delegates in Oz?

Posted on | March 7, 2012 | 43 Comments

An important question, because Newt is not in Kansas anymore:

The Gingrich campaign is cancelling all Kansas events to focus on Mississippi and Alabama. KS caucuses Sat. Miss, Ala primaries Tues.

That’s via Twitchy, a new social-media site that I learned about via Bob Belvedere at Camp of the Saints, who got it from Michelle Malkin, who has hired many excellent people to run it. But never mind the celebration — back to the news, via the Washington Post:

Newt Gingrich is canceling campaign events scheduled for Kansas at the end of the week to shore up support in the Deep South. The former House speaker plans to pour his time and resources into Alabama and Mississippi.
“Everything between Spartanburg all the way to Texas, those all need to go for Gingrich,” said campaign spokesman R.C. Hammond.

Also more at The Hill. There’s trouble in Newtland, boys and girls. There are 40 delegates at stake Saturday in Kansas, but Newt is forced to forfeit that fight in order to defend his “home turf” in the Deep South. Why? Because Rick Santorum’s wins Tuesday in Oklahoma and Tennessee showed that Gingrich might be more vulnerable in the South than he had previously suspected.

Gingrich’s string of third- and fourth-place finishes Tuesday have not only marked him as the weakest candidate in the field, but have prompted questions about his motives for continuing his campaign. In an excellent post at Commentary, Bethany Mandel asks:

What price tag does Gingrich put on the free publicity he’s garnering while he remains in the race? Is it high enough to forfeit what he’s claimed is the Republicans’ only chance at victory in November?

Once people start talking smack like that about your campaign, the fundraising tends to dry up and — no matter how determined you may be to carry on — the financial issues become problematic. Meanwhile, Santorum’s starting to close the money gap with Mitt Romney:

So far in 2012, for every $1 that Santorum has raised, Romney has raised $1.31 ($13.5 million for Santorum, $17.7 million for Romney). For every $1 that Santorum raised in February alone, Romney raised $1.28 ($9 million for Santorum, $11.5 million for Romney). Moreover, February was not Romney’s biggest fundraising month, while Santorum raised more in February than he had in all previous months of his campaign combined.

Team Mitt says it would take “an act of God” for Romney to lose the nomination. I’ll keep an eye out for plagues of locusts, rivers of blood and, quite possibly, another earthquake in Vanuatu.

UPDATE: Holy Freaking Crap! No sooner had I posted this than I was informed on Twitter by Steve Eggleston that there has just been a 5.1 earthquake in Vanuatu. Watch out, Mitt!

Category: Alabama, Election 2012, Kansas, Mississippi, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum

Comments

43 Responses to “How Many GOP Delegates in Oz?”

  1. Bob Belvedere
    March 7th, 2012 @ 11:22 pm

    As we’ve seen in the recent past: Vanuatu is the key.

    PS: Thanks for the linky love.

  2. Adjoran
    March 7th, 2012 @ 11:47 pm

     Obviously Newt heard about my advice to Santorum to get down to the Gulf and end the Newt candidacy in Alabama and Mississippi.  If Santorum beats Gingrich in those states, there is no longer even an imaginary path to the nomination for Newt, pressure for him to withdraw will mount.

    If Gingrich is allowed to cruise along and win delegates and the occasional Southern state, Romney will lock this thing up in short order – well, by mid-April it will be evident to everyone that it’s over.  Romney took 55% of the delegates Tuesday with just over 40% of the vote.  Santorum cannot just watch that continue and pray for Divine Intervention.

    Gingrich may realize this threat – now also picked up tonight by Bill Kristol, who noticed I failed to copyright the idea – or maybe he just is out of money.  Adelson gave another $10 mil to the PAC, but that can’t be used to pay the actual campaign’s expenses, and not many donors pony up for a consistent 3rd or 4th place.

    From a standpoint of practical arithmetic, Santorum’s immediate enemy is Gingrich’s continuing candidacy.  If he can force Newt out, he has a chance – by no means will he necessarily consolidate most of the Gingrich support, but he would have a chance to do it.  Otherwise, he can keep fighting with Romney and losing a war of attrition.

  3. Finrod Felagund
    March 8th, 2012 @ 12:05 am

    Santorum should want Newt to stay in the race.  We’ve already seen that Santorum can’t beat Romney as his main competitor now, if Romney didn’t have to worry about spending money on anti-Newt ads like he’s still doing, all that money would go to destroying Santorum.

    His best chance of getting the nomination is to come in second in delegate count with Romney being denied a majority, then make a deal with the Newt delegates at the convention.

  4. NealGraham
    March 8th, 2012 @ 12:13 am

    Mitt will only get a tiny fraction of Newt’s supporters when he drops out (not If), Rick gets a significant majority of Newt’s supporters.  So it benefits Rick A LOT for Newt to drop out, and HURTS Mitt ROmney A LOT for Newt to drop out!
    We Pick Rick!

  5. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    March 8th, 2012 @ 12:20 am

    Mitt Romney is giving up his biggest club to be nice?  Is he insane?

  6. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    March 8th, 2012 @ 12:22 am

    Right now there is no clear path to nomination (although Mitt remains most likely as leader).  I suspect that stays true even if Newt drops out (although Santorum’s chances then go up).  

  7. sheryl
    March 8th, 2012 @ 12:42 am

    Mitt’s the anointed nominee, get used to it. Then after that, your blog will have to persuade me to go to the polls. When I told the nice man on the phone today from the RNC that I will no longer give any greenback to any affiliated Republican party organization, he immediately began speaking about how wonderful Romney is.It must be in the script. I told him no longer, take me off the list. Judging by his reaction, he has heard that quite a bit lately.

  8. Bishop Romney Says It Would Take An ‘Act of God’ For Him to Lose Nomination
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  9. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    March 8th, 2012 @ 1:20 am

    Unfortunately where are those GOP Super Delegates going?  Mr. Inevitable…

  10. Adjoran
    March 8th, 2012 @ 2:15 am

     Sorry, but if you look at the states remaining, Romney has an edge in most of the winner-take-all contests.  Run the numbers.  If Gingrich stays in, it’s over, only a question of time and money running out on Rick and Newt.

  11. Adjoran
    March 8th, 2012 @ 2:22 am

     If you look at the actual numbers and states coming up, that won’t happen.  In a three-man race, Romney racks up an easy majority.  You have to assume a lot of wildly unrealistic things for it to happen otherwise, sorry.

    Santorum alone facing Romney, given the results so far and the upcoming states, would be a big underdog.  Gingrich has ZERO chance – the path his adviser presented last night is a joke, with Newt winning all the Southern states including Texas and all but one of the winner-take-all states, of which he is no higher than third in any now.  Or maybe if a meteor strikes the Earth . . .

  12. Adjoran
    March 8th, 2012 @ 2:23 am

     Well, it gives him a chance.  Exit polls in Ohio indicated Romney would get most of the Newt votes there, though, which is typical of lower candidates’ support.

  13. Adjoran
    March 8th, 2012 @ 2:24 am

     Liar.

  14. Confutus
    March 8th, 2012 @ 2:51 am

     On the one hand, Gingrich keeps yapping at Romney’s heels, and while people are still listening to Gingrich, Romney can’t pitch to them.  On the other, he splits the not-Romney vote with Santorum, and Romney wins by taking pluralities. He can’t win, but he can make it harder for either of the others to take the prize. 

  15. Denverwindowwashing
    March 8th, 2012 @ 3:06 am

    There are many considerations involved and cogitated, always without certainty of anything but a known, predictable lingering doubt, when a potential POTUS decides, what a potential POTUS decides round these times.

    A chasm between being a potential POTUS — who decides what they decide — and one who isn’t, exists. An unAmerican chasm.

    This should be viewed with fear and suspicion as a crevasse would be to a mountaineer.

    Preparation, respect, hate, knowledge.

    Churchillian NeverQuitedness.

  16. Confutus
    March 8th, 2012 @ 3:12 am

    It is a very common claim, that Romney won’t attack Obama, with very little evidence to support it.  Romney has hit his primary opponents hard, on policy rather than with personal insults, and he has been consistently doing the same with Obama. 

  17. Adjoran
    March 8th, 2012 @ 3:39 am

     Put the bong down and step away.  No one will get hurt.

  18. MrPaulRevere
    March 8th, 2012 @ 3:50 am

    Maybe they gave that Loughner fellow a laptop in the mental hospital

  19. Bob Belvedere
    March 8th, 2012 @ 7:48 am

    From Real Clear Politics, Mitt speaking on Larry Kudlow’s show:
    Well, my message is I’m not going to say outrageous things about the president or about my opponents. It gets headlines and a lot of excitement, and it gets you, by the way, a number of days in the polls to get a nice little bump. But I’m going to talk about the real issues Americans face and talk with respect about people who have differing views. I’m not going to attack them personally. I mean, I know that’s fun, but it’s just not productive. And we need, as a nation, to come together to recognize that even though we have differing views about the country and about where we should go, we all love the country.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/03/06/romney_im_not_going_to_say_outrageous_things_about_the_president.html

    Tip of the fedora to Jeff Goldstein:
    http://proteinwisdom.com/wp-trackback.php?p=38048

  20. Bob Belvedere
    March 8th, 2012 @ 7:53 am

    Could be the thin air in Denver.

  21. Doc Clear
    March 8th, 2012 @ 9:33 am

    Unfortunately, Newt is the only one who can beat the press.  Rick and Mitt both suck at communicating and they both start at the press’ narrative and go backwards.  It’s like they take the bait every single time.  Let’s face it, we aren’t trying to beat Obama.  We’re trying to beat the press.  With those 2 fighting it out, we’ve already lost.  I realize Newt has a snowball’s chance in Hell of winning, but he’s the only one taking it to the media and Obama that’s being effective. 

    I like Santorum, but he’s a lightweight.  He’s a great guy and a so/so Conservative but he can’t string two sentences together without sounding like he’s lost. 

    Let’s face it, this is the fork in the Republican party.  It’s done.  And I hated Newt when he first started so It’s not like I’m a cheerleader.  I was on the Cain train and even rode out the derailment.  Between Santorum and Romney I say… Meh.

  22. ThePaganTemple
    March 8th, 2012 @ 10:36 am

     Fuck him. Did he say that recently? To hell with him.

  23. ThePaganTemple
    March 8th, 2012 @ 10:38 am

     Unless Newt convinces his patrons that if he can win Mississippi and Alabama he has a chance to win big in Texas. And who knows, maybe California. Maybe even New York.

  24. ThePaganTemple
    March 8th, 2012 @ 10:41 am

    Why do you think she’s lying, Adj? Is it because she says somebody from the RNC directly promoted Mitt? Why is that so hard for you to believe? Most of these people are phone bank volunteers, and they are being pushed to bring in contributions. Maybe he is behind his quota and tossed a Hail Mary.

  25. Bob Agard
    March 8th, 2012 @ 10:44 am

    Thanks for the map. I have been wondering how to get to Vanuatu.

  26. ThePaganTemple
    March 8th, 2012 @ 10:45 am

     And the window detergent fumes.

  27. ThePaganTemple
    March 8th, 2012 @ 10:46 am

     Bravo, my thoughts exactly.

  28. richard mcenroe
    March 8th, 2012 @ 11:28 am

     There’s nothing unbelievable in her story.  I’ve worked GOP phone banks and won’t do so again (will work/donate for specific candidates.)  And I WILL NOT donate to the RNC.

  29. Finrod Felagund
    March 8th, 2012 @ 12:39 pm

    Where has Romney gotten a majority of the votes anywhere, other than Virginia, where he barely got 60 percent with Ron Paul as his only opponent?

  30. Finrod Felagund
    March 8th, 2012 @ 12:40 pm

    I’m a Gingrich supporter, and I’d vote for Romney over Santorum.

    Blame Stacy, after all he’d vote for Romney over Gingrich.

  31. Finrod Felagund
    March 8th, 2012 @ 12:41 pm

    It’s Adjoran’s standard comeback when he doesn’t have anything else he can say, ThePaganTemple.
     

  32. Finrod Felagund
    March 8th, 2012 @ 12:48 pm

    Am I the only one that gets the Olivia Newton-John song Xanadu stuck in my head every time I see Vanuatu?

  33. Radical Reporter
    March 8th, 2012 @ 2:07 pm

    rsmccain: why are you quoting the liberal media dude. i thought you knew better. please try to promote conservative media. hope you help the cause.

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  35. ThePaganTemple
    March 8th, 2012 @ 4:12 pm

    He’s quoting them because they are bad-mouthing Newt lol

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  37. Confutus
    March 8th, 2012 @ 5:40 pm

    I guess some people can’t tell the difference between outrageous attacks on a person and rational attacks on a policy. I read this as Romney saying doesn’t want to jump out in front of the hotheads and lead a premature and unsupported attack. Which makes sense, unless you’re a hothead.

  38. Charles
    March 8th, 2012 @ 7:22 pm

    Massachusetts gave Mitt 72%, Idaho 61%, Wyoming 53%, Nevada 50.1%. 

  39. Charles
    March 8th, 2012 @ 7:27 pm

    Santorum should have gone after Newt in Georgia. A loss in Georgia would have been beyond even Newt’s imaginary powers of explanation.

  40. ThePaganTemple
    March 8th, 2012 @ 11:40 pm

     Bullshit, there’s plenty of material with which to attack Obama based on substantiated facts, Romney is just a milquetoast who’s afraid of offending leftists because they might call him bad names. Piss on that. Call a spade a spade, and if they call you racist, tell them to go to hell. The Democrats glass houses should have been shattered to pieces decades ago.

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