The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Gingrich’s Glass Jaw

Posted on | February 6, 2012 | 57 Comments

“Mitt Romney won Saturday’s Nevada caucuses with his highest portion of a state’s vote yet, just over 50%, according to certified results released Monday by the Nevada Republican Party.”
— CNN

Remember this headline from Dec. 15?

Billionaire Prepared to Spend $20 Million
on My Blog Newt Gingrich’s Campaign

That was the report that Vegas mogul Sheldon Adelson had pledged his wealth in support of Newt’s “Winning Our Future” super-PAC. However, the New York Times had another headline Saturday:

Gingrich Patron Could Have a Plan B: Romney

Adelson would be perfectly willing to support Romney as the GOP nominee, and that story also explained that some of Romney’s supporters have reached out to Adelson, urging him to pull the plug on Gingrich’s campaign. This exposes Newt’s glaring weakness: With his campaign’s viability so dependent on the super-PAC largesse of a single donor, if Adelson sneezes, Gingrich gets the flu.

Now, let me remind you of what I wrote Friday:

Newt’s current “frontrunner” status is far more fragile than it looks.
Newt’s campaign can only survive a few more humiliating defeats before it implodes from the enormous weight of its utter implausibility. Whereas by contrast, Santorum has always been a long shot. Santorum’s expectations are lower, and he is therefore able to “succeed” with results that would be a bitter disappointment to the supporters of a big-budget frontrunner like Newt.
Gingrich will get stomped Saturday in Nevada. A few weeks from now, when Gingrich’s supporters have seen their man defeated over and over, without a significant win since South Carolina, Newt will quit and endorse Romney.

CBS has a report on the billionaires who have given to super-PACs, and Adelson is the only one backing Newt. Given the hints from Adelson, isn’t is now obvious why Gingrich will ultimately endorse Romney? Newt wouldn’t dare double-cross the patron whose multimillion-dollar donation was the only reason Gingrich wasn’t forced to quit after his fourth-place finish in Iowa and his fifth-place finish in New Hampshire.

So, how long until Newt quits? During his bizarre Saturday night Vegas tantrum, Gingrich predicted “he would emerge as the GOP front-runner again by the Texas primary,” currently scheduled for April 3.

This was evidently an attempt by Newt to push his make-or-break point past Super Tuesday, March 6. And of course, he vowed to take the fight all the way to the August convention in Tampa.

But has Sheldon Adelson signed off on that plan? Or, as I strongly suspect, is Adelson’s multimillion-dollar commitment to the Gingrich campaign likely to end — and his financial support shift to Romney — on or before the morning of March 7? The possibility that Newt might not even make it to Super Tuesday is reflected in this headline:

Tea party leader implores Newt
to get his act together

Will Gingrich and his supporters denounce Judson Philips of Tea Party Nation as part of the “GOP Establishment” and the “elite media”?

No one can say that about Professor Glenn Reynolds, who seems to be supporting someone named “Zeeba.”

Category: Election 2012, Newt Gingrich

Comments

57 Responses to “Gingrich’s Glass Jaw”

  1. richard mcenroe
    February 6th, 2012 @ 10:44 pm

    We’ll just tell Alito and Roberts to resign then, shall we?  Because THAT’s what we got for Specter.

  2. Tennwriter
    February 7th, 2012 @ 12:28 am

    As to Space, R. McEnroe quotes Travis Taylor for 152 Billion.  Now, if we are going to completely waste a trillion bucks, I’d rather waste it on the Future than lining some hacks pockets.

    The only way I see we get a moon base by using the Orion system which I expect Gingrich knows about.  But while that would be great, the likelihood of Ron Paul getting a second term is more likely.

    Not too happy with Mitt’s lack of vision.

    And of course, Stacy’s right.  Rick is not spending at nearly the burn rate, and THAT MATTERS (for those who’ve spent lots of time ignoring what Stacy said.)

    Santorum has a very good chance.

  3. K-Bob
    February 7th, 2012 @ 1:18 am

    Santorum was considered #3 in the Republican leadership at the time.  If he hadn’t endorsed The Spectre, it would have looked very bad for Bush.

    This isn’t complicated.

  4. Bob Belvedere
    February 7th, 2012 @ 9:20 am

     Because that’s what Caesarians do.

  5. Anonymous
    February 7th, 2012 @ 9:28 am

    Not to mention, Specter helped Santorum with his 94 campaign “lending”him more experienced, savvy political staff.  Barone wrote about this a month ago. 

  6. K-Bob
    February 7th, 2012 @ 10:22 am

    Ol’ Arlin.

    What a doofus.

  7. Anonymous
    February 7th, 2012 @ 11:19 am

    “snarlin Arlin” to be exact. He’s still a local celebrity in these parts, and is on the local RINOish radio show (Smerconish) .. its kind of funny to hear him give his political “analysis.” Sometimes, he veers into Republican territory without realizing it. He says the usual Leftist talking points, but doesn’t *hate* the other side like most Leftists do. He’d be more comfortable with the “no labels” crowd.