The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Santorum: The ‘Least Worst’ Candidate?

Posted on | December 13, 2011 | 14 Comments

Lisa Graas makes an interesting argument about the way voters are manipulated with news about polling. Read the headline and first two paragraph of a NewsMax article Monday:

Rasmussen Poll: Gingrich, Romney
Strongest to Beat Obama
Voters are evenly divided over whether Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney would provide President Barack Obama with the strongest GOP challenge next November, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll.
But twice as many Republican voters feel that the former House speaker would have a better chance of beating Obama in the race for the White House. . . .

My own criticism of such a story is this: It is absurd to allow your vote in a primary to be influenced by poll data about “electability” in surveys conducted many months in advance of the election. Such polls will almost always favor the candidate with the biggest “name ID” and, in this year’s Flavor-of-the-Month GOP campaign, we’ve seen front-runners rise and fall. For a few weeks in late August and early September, Rick Perry’s numbers were very encouraging and now — as the Iowa caucuses approach — Perry looks like an also-ran.

Campaigns matter. Hypothetical poll match-ups between candidates cannot predict the events of a campaign, and those unforeseen events will ultimately matter more than the shallow perceptions reflected in polls done in advance of an actual campaign.

That’s my general criticism of reporting polls as facts, as if today’s barometer of public opinion reflected a solid and permanent reality.

Lisa Graas, however, finds something surprising buried deep in that NewsMax article:

Voters were also asked which of the seven leading GOP candidates would do worst against Obama. In that poll, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann was considered the weakest candidate by 30 percent of respondents, scoring more than double over the next-worst, Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Women gave Bachmann, the only female in the race, an even lower rating than men did. Romney at 4 percent and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 7 percent were considered the least-worst candidates.

Of course, Lisa has other arguments in favor of Santorum, but it is interesting to discover — in the seventh paragraph of this article — that Santorum’s low-budget candidacy rivals a big-money contender like Romney in what might be a crucial factor for those GOP voters who place a premium on “electability.”

Category: Election 2012, Lisa Graas, Polls, Rick Santorum

Comments

14 Responses to “Santorum: The ‘Least Worst’ Candidate?”

  1. What’s the Difference Between “Strongest” Candidate and “Least Worst” Candidate? « Catholic Bandita
    December 13th, 2011 @ 9:40 am

    […] Stacy McCain offers insight at The Other McCain. : Politics : Iowa, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Poll, Rick […]

  2. michael corleone
    December 13th, 2011 @ 10:04 am

    It’s time for those who like Santorum and Bachmann (paging Mark Levin) to pick a candidate.  They have the same constituencies so we must consolidate around one candidate.  For my money, Santorum is imminently more qualified than Bachmann; in fact, I don’t think Bachmann has a prayer of beating Obama, but I believe Santorum can.

  3. Joe
    December 13th, 2011 @ 10:40 am

    We do choose the nominee we think will win, whether the polling or other inforation we rely upon is faulty or not. 

    The question is, how would Newt, Romney, or Rick Santorum do in a head to head to Obama.  The truth is no one really knows.  We have polling which suggests Romney would do slightly better than Newt and that Santorum would lose. 

    But I know, I know, a general election poll now is not truly predictive of how things will be in November 2012.  But that is what we got. 

  4. Joe
    December 13th, 2011 @ 10:42 am

    http://www.michaelsavage.wnd.com/2011/12/savage-offers-gingrich-1-million-to-drop-out-of-the-race-will-announce-on-show-today/

    Calista could get a lot of jewlery with this…just sayin! 

  5. Joe
    December 13th, 2011 @ 11:13 am

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html

    Santorum is not horrible in the polls.  He is 14 points behind Obama.  The one who does best is Romney. 

    Of course many of you will say:  But what about John McCain.  He polled like Romney and went on to lose to Obama.  True.  But then, do you think Romney or Huckabee (who were the alterntive choices at the time) could have beat Obama in 2008?  The answer to that is NO. 

    So we should pick the guy who lost to McCain in 2008?  I am not saying that either.  You should continue to support the candidate you like best in the primaries.  We have not cast even a single vote yet!  

    If Rick Santorum is going to even have a chance, he needs to persuade the base to support him first.  So let’s see how he does. 

  6. ThePaganTemple
    December 13th, 2011 @ 11:37 am

    I don’t trust the polls that show head to head matchups with Obama. I think people are purposely voting for Obama against the Republican candidates they would prefer not get the nomination. But if any of those candidates were to get the nomination, the people saying now they’d vote for Obama would probably change their minds, or at least most Republicans would. But it is a pretty good gauge of which candidates have the most support, and for now that appears to be Gingrich and Romney. But if Bachmann or Santorum were to get the nomination, as unlikely as that now appears to be in either case, I have no doubt either one would do much better than what the polls now reflect. They might not win, but they wouldn’t do as bad as it shows now.

  7. Joe
    December 13th, 2011 @ 12:27 pm

    Really?  You think Rasmussen is doing that?  That said you should not trust them.  Not because they are being manipulated to manipulate you (that may be true for some of them, but I do believe Rasmussen to be an honest poller), but because polls like this are not true indicators of what will happen 11 months from now.  At best they are just a snap shot.  A blurry out of focus snap shot.  But if you get a series of them, they can indicate motion.  And that is what you should look for. 

  8. At Last! The Gingrich and Santa Santorum Face Off After Christmas Chores Completed | Daily Pundit
    December 13th, 2011 @ 12:31 pm

    […] Face Off After Christmas Chores Completed Posted on December 13, 2011 9:30 am by Bill Quick Santorum: The ‘Least Worst’ Candidate? : The Other McCain Of course, Lisa has other arguments in favor of Santorum, but it is interesting to discover — […]

  9. Adjoran
    December 13th, 2011 @ 3:09 pm

    It is hard to conceive that after the last three years ANYONE in their right mind would vote for Obama again.

    But then again, all those missing trillions of dollars did go to someone, didn’t they? 

  10. ThePaganTemple
    December 13th, 2011 @ 3:11 pm

    I wasn’t accusing the pollsters of doing that, I’m talking about the people who take part in the polls. The pollsters can’t read their minds, and it would be unprofessional to second guess the respondents. But if I were to take part in one in which I were asked my preference in every conceivable match-up, I might be inclined to say I’d vote for Obama over Romney, for example, even if I didn’t really mean it.

  11. Joe
    December 13th, 2011 @ 4:11 pm

    I would answer the pollster truthfully.  Or not answer at all.  I sure as hell would not prop up Barack Obama unless I supported Barack Obama in the first place (which I definitely do not).    But a good pollster builds in the number of respondents you need to address false answers.  Usually when the sample is over 1500 you get fairly predictable statisical probabilities (with a several point margin of error). 

    But I agree with you that these general polls 11 months before an election are useless at predicting outcomes.  They have value only if you monitor a decent poll (like Rasmussen) over time to see who is rising or falling over time. 

  12. ThePaganTemple
    December 13th, 2011 @ 5:00 pm

    You’re talking about liberals here, they haven’t been in their right mind since they hit puberty. The only reason any of them would vote against Obama is because he isn’t batshit crazy enough to suit them.

  13. Santorum Surge: New Poll Shows Gains in Iowa, Closing in on Perry, Bachmann : The Other McCain
    December 13th, 2011 @ 6:19 pm

    […] Bachmann. And guess what?RICK SANTORUM ‘NO SURRENDER’ MONEY BOMB RECENTLY:Dec. 13: Santorum: The ‘Least Worst’ Candidate?Dec. 12: SANTORUM EXPRESS UPDATE: Pulls Even With Bachmann in New Iowa Poll, Gains Endorsement by […]

  14. Santorum Iowa Ad: ‘Join the Fight’ : The Other McCain
    December 16th, 2011 @ 9:32 am

    […] 13: Santorum Surge: New Poll Shows Gains in Iowa, Closing in on Perry, BachmannDec. 13: Santorum: The ‘Least Worst’ Candidate?Dec. 12: SANTORUM EXPRESS UPDATE: Pulls Even With Bachmann in New Iowa Poll, Gains Endorsement by […]