The Other McCain

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Santorum ‘Planning to Win’ in Iowa

Posted on | December 9, 2011 | 10 Comments

OK, that partial quote from Friday’s blogger conference call with Rick Santorum may sound like he’s ridiculously raising expectations, when in fact he was doing the opposite. I’ll crib the full quote from Tina Korbe at Hot Air:

“We obviously are planning to win here in Iowa. We don’t have to win. We’re not like some of the other candidates who have put all their eggs in one basket. [But] we have to do well here. We have to finish in or near the money. … I’m convinced that’s happening and it will happen and I feel very confident that we’ll have a bounce coming out of Iowa that will lead to a surprise finish in New Hampshire. Then, off to the races.”

To be “in the money” in horse racing means top three, and therefore “in or near the money” means at least fourth place in Iowa. If Santorum maintains his current momentum, I think he’s actually lowballing the estimate.

While it would be wildly irresponsible to predict a Santorum victory in Iowa, he would have a dramatic impact if he finished second or third. Why? Because Santorum’s the guy that all the “experts” have written off, and he’s got a fraction of the money raised by Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry.

Should Santorum finish in the top three in Iowa, at least one of those big-money candidates would suffer a disastrous humiliation, having finished behind a longshot candidate with a low-budget campaign. The most likely victim of such an embarrassment is Rick Perry.

As Bob Belvedere says, the Perry campaign absolutely reeks of desperation these days, and desperation is not attractive.

Big news: Santorum is going to Mass and eating his vegetables while on the campaign trail. Thanks to Lisa Graas for asking about that. Meanwhile, The Lonely Conservative has more:

When asked why he hasn’t caught fire as the anti-Romney “flavor of the month,” Santorum replied “I’m pretty boring — married 21 years, 7 kids, no scandals, give answers that make sense in debates.” He said that the “low expectations” the media and the pundits have for his campaign is a good thing. “Exceeding expectations is better than not, we saw that with Tim Pawlenty who finished third [in the Aug. 13 Ames Straw Poll] and he’s out.”

The point here is that, in an underdog campaign like this, you go all-out, every day, playing to win, and try not to worry too much about the odds against victory. Because if you stopped to think about the odds — when all the “experts” say it’s hopeless — you’d quit. But a lot of crazy things have already happened in this campaign, and it’s not completely insane to think that a hardline social conservative who has practically lived in Iowa since May might have a shot.

If you bought InTrade shares for Santorum to win Iowa, $100 today would pay off more than $5,000 should he pull a miracle upset Jan. 3.

I’m just sayin’ . . .

Steve Ertelt got online with the first article about the conference call:

Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum said Friday that he doesn’t recall former Speaker Newt Gingrich leading the battle on pro-life issues during the time to two lawmakers served together in the House. . . .
Although Gingrich compiled a 98% pro-life voting record, Santorum said “he was not a pro-life warrior, that was not his gig.”

Keep in mind that Santorum didn’t bring up this topic. Ertelt asked the question, and Santorum gave his honest opinion. This wasn’t gratuitous Newt-bashing. NTTAWWT.

My own interest was trying to capture a sense of how the campaign “feels” out there in Iowa, so my American Spectator story began:

Rick Santorum says his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination is on pace to exceed expectations in the Iowa caucuses Jan. 3.
“We’re hitting our stride at just the right time,” the former Pennsylvania senator said Friday as he traveled across the Hawkeye State, where he has campaigned relentlessly all year. The news media have repeatedly tried to portray the GOP campaign as a two-man battle between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and a series of “flavor of the month” rivals — the latest being former House Speaker Newt Gingrich — but Santorum said, “again, they are wrong.”

Gut hunch? They think they’re finally catching fire, but they’ve had this feeling before and were disappointed, so they don’t want to get too optimistic just yet. With 25 days to go, they’ll know for sure soon enough.

Da Tech Guy has a list of bloggers who asked questions during the call, but I was shocked to learn after the conference call ended that somehow Zilla of the Resistance didn’t get her invitation to the call. Somebody goofed.

Finally: TeresAmerica has endorsed Rick Santorum, and you know that every time a blogger endorses Rick Santorum, an angel gets his wings.

 

 

Category: Election, Iowa, Rick Santorum

Comments

10 Responses to “Santorum ‘Planning to Win’ in Iowa”

  1. Klejdys aka Gamblor
    December 10th, 2011 @ 12:11 am

    Stacy at his most delusional. I am “planning” to date Megan Fox.  Barack Obama is “planning” on being competent.  Nice try – the guy brings nothing to the table but warmed over Bush neo-con tendencies.  Pass.

  2. VIDEO: Santorum on Hannity : The Other McCain
    December 10th, 2011 @ 12:40 am

    […] had fought for welfare reform and other conservative causes.More at Memeorandum.RECENTLY:Dec. 9: Santorum ‘Planning to Win’ in IowaDec. 9: Santorum Surge Gets Boost From Endorsements by Anti-Jihad Blogger, Conservative Billionaire […]

  3. Rick Santorum is the Most Consistent Conservative in the GOP Primary – Updated and Bumped | The Lonely Conservative
    December 10th, 2011 @ 2:07 am

    […] my understanding of what he said on a phone line that was not the clearest). (Read More)And Stacy loves underdogs.The point here is that, in an underdog campaign like this, you go all-out, every day, playing to […]

  4. Joe
    December 10th, 2011 @ 7:25 am

    Good for him.  I wish him the best. 

  5. Zilla of the Resistance
    December 10th, 2011 @ 10:00 am

    Thank you for the mention, I know now that my exclusion was accidental, but I’m still feeling pretty low. I do still support Rick Santorum completely, but  it’s hard seeing all my friends writing about what would have been the coolest thing ever for me as a blogger – who just spent a week putting together that post at my place making the case for his presidency – to have been included in (I was really excited about it) and then being left totally out of it.

  6. Datechguy's Blog » Blog Archive » Q & A from the Santorum Conference Call Yesterday » Datechguy's Blog
    December 10th, 2011 @ 10:59 am

    […] Stacy McCain: The media tries to portray you as one trick pony on social issues. How do you get around that? Answer: I’ve spent most of the time on economics and the like but the bottom line is you can’t have strong economy without strong family. I am the best guy on Economics but also the best choice on entitlement reform, taxes and spending and foreign policy. […]

  7. Joe
    December 10th, 2011 @ 11:58 am

    I think Stacy McCain knows your pain. 

  8. Zilla of the Resistance
    December 10th, 2011 @ 4:41 pm

    I’m sure he does, but he’s a man and he’s tougher than me. I am crushed.

  9. Santorum Iowa Ad: ‘Join the Fight’ : The Other McCain
    December 16th, 2011 @ 9:42 am

    […] PastorDec. 11: Santorum: Election ‘About Obama’Dec. 10: VIDEO: Santorum on HannityDec. 9: Santorum ‘Planning to Win’ in IowaDec. 9: Santorum Surge Gets Boost From Endorsements by Anti-Jihad Blogger, Conservative Billionaire […]

  10. R.J. Grigaitis Endorses Rick Santorum « Catholic Bandita
    December 20th, 2011 @ 9:31 am

    […] I am very touched and honored. Thanks, R.J. As we all know, every time a blogger endorses Rick Santorum, an angel gets his wings. […]