The Other McCain

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The Evidently Obligatory ‘How Many House Seats Will the GOP Win?’ Post

Posted on | October 28, 2010 | 9 Comments

Short answer: A lot fewer than they could have, if the NRCC had a freaking clue.

Really. Ace of Spades interrogates Jay Cost about the likelihood of Republican gains on the high side of 60, which I consider insanely optimistic, given the face-palming incompetence of the NRCC. But first the good news from Jay Cost:

Ohio is all but gone for the Democrats, including the swingiest of swing districts in Columbus. Michigan is a lost cause. So is liberal icon Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. Pennsylvania looks like it will go maybe +4-6 for Toomey and Corbett. All of these places voted for Obama, and all of them are basically gone.

And as Ace points in his inimitable way, there’s a poll showing Sean Bielat in a dead heat with Barney Frank. Yeah, it’s an internal Beilat campaign poll, but still: There’s a chance a Republican could beat Barney Frank, a possibility nobody dared dream of two years ago. There was also good news a couple days ago from The Hill:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is making a last ditch effort to survive a GOP wave by blanketing the airwaves in more than 60 districts in the final week of the campaign.
According to FEC filings late Tuesday, the DCCC purchased $21.6 million worth of air time in 66 districts.
The ad buys represent the breadth of the GOP ‘s momentum. Among those 66 districts, many were once considered safe Democratic seats, including those held by Reps. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) and Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.). Only three of the seats in which Democrats are advertising are held by Republicans.

Good news, yes, but also bad news: That’s $21.6 million of brutal ads accusing Republicans of rape, murder, arson and wanting to give tax cuts to greedy corporations that ship jobs to China.

And the National Republican Congressional Committee? They can’t do shit to reply. The NRCC’s got nothing. The DCCC out-raised the NRCC by $14 million this cycle, because the NRCC is run by clueless dingleberries under the chairmanship of Rep. Pete Sessions.

Pete Sessions should have been stripped of his chairmanship the day after Dede Scozzafava endorsed Bill Owens. If there were still any old-fashioned justice in the world, Pete Sessions would have been horsewhipped and stomped to death by the House Republican Caucus, his head carried through the streets atop a pike, and his mutilated headless corpse fed to dogs.

(Rarest sentence in the English language: “Gee, Stacy, why don’t you tell us how you really feel?”)

Because Pete Sessions was not fired, etc., conservatives with good sense stopped giving to the NRCC, which is staffed by half-wits who got their jobs because their Daddy was good friends with some GOP bigwig. Consider that, in Florida’s 24th District — a key pickup Republican opportunity against an extremely vulnerable Democrat — the primary was complicated by a candidate whose fundraising consultant was the wife of NRCC executive director Guy Harrison. Thankfully, that candidate lost the primary, but not before raising and spending more than $600,000 — Republican money wasted on an “insider” candidate who, had she won the primary, would have been unelectable.

Such stories could be told in district after district across the country. If Republicans gain 5o or 60 House seats on Tuesday, I’ll be happy. But they could have easily won 70 or 80, had the NRCC been run by intelligent and competent people instead of well-connected subnormals.

And please keep in mind the unthinkable: Despite all the encouraging poll numbers, the GOP may yet fall short on Election Day. If so, the public horsewhipping and death-stomping of Pete Sessions and the NRCC staff . . . well, that would make a heck of a story.

Meanwhile, my shot-in-the-dark gut-hunch guess of how many House seats the GOP will win is . . . . consulting the crystal ball here . . . let’s go with 49.

I’m lowballing it, because I figure there will be at least 10 races where it’s close enough for Democrats to steal.

Category: Congress, Election, Florida, Kentucky, Polls, Sean Bielat

Comments

9 Responses to “The Evidently Obligatory ‘How Many House Seats Will the GOP Win?’ Post”

  1. Anonymous
    October 29th, 2010 @ 1:06 pm

    Until The Real Republicans Stand up and start Continually pointing out Failure,where it Exists , Nothing will change.Creative Destruction MUST start somewhere, if the Future of our Republic has any Meaning to the Mild-mannered,among us.This is probably a Reasonable Place to Start. Point out Failure, and replace the Failed. Rinse and Repeat,as-needed. Minimal Excuses,Maximal Results.What Else Ya’ Got?? “It Was A New Day,Yesterday,But It’s An Old Day Now”. L F O D