The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Primary Lessons: Don’t Bet Your Hopes

Posted on | June 9, 2010 | 19 Comments

Carle Hulse of New York Times conveys the politics of wishful thinking from inside the Democratic bubble:

On a primary election night when the heralded anti-incumbency sentiment was expected to again demonstrate its strength, Senator Blanche Lincoln proved there were clear limits to its power.
Virtually written off as a likely victim of voter outrage at veteran politicians, Mrs. Lincoln, a two-term Arkansas Democrat, showed that an experienced office-holder with money, message and determination still had a chance to prevail even in a toxic environment.

Yeah. You bank on that in November, Democrats. There is no anti-incumbent wave, no outrage toward Washington, no backlash against Obama and the fact that Blanche Lincoln defeated a union-backed challenger in a Democratic primary in Arkansas obviously proves that.

On the other hand, Republicans need to be aware that their party still hasn’t recovered from Bush-era “brand damage.” That was my personal take-away from the PA-12 special election last month: Tim Burns was a good candidate with a good message, but simply couldn’t win in a majority-Democrat district with an “R” beside his name.

This problem is not ideological, by the way. It’s not that GOP candidates or policies are “too conservative,” it’s that the failures of Bush-era Republicanism left the party with an image of cluelessness and corruption. Democrat candidates can fake being conservative a lot easier than Republican candidates can escape the toxicity of that “R.”

Notice, for example, that in the May 18 Arkansas primaries, the turnout on the Democratic side was more than 300,000 while the highly-contested GOP primary — with eight candidates — drew less than half that. In fact, Lincoln’s vote in Tuesday’s Democratic runoff (about 135,000) was nearly twice what John Boozman got (about 75,000) in the Republican primary.

If Republican primary turnout is so low in Arkansas — not exactly a bastion of liberalism — it’s obvious the GOP still has a lot of work to do in order to rid itself of the toxic taint of Bushism. 

Most Republicans don’t really understand what causes this problem, which so badly hurt Tim Burns in Pennsylvania last month. You can’t solve a problem you don’t understand. And so if anyone thinks the GOP will just waltz to a majority in November, they’re as naive as Democrats who think there is no chance Blanche Lincoln will fall victim to a backlash.

UPDATE: If you want to understand what “brand damage” is really all about, contemplate why former GOP state chairwoman Sue Lowden lost in Nevada:

“I’m not going to second-guess it right now. That needs a week or two to sit back and reflect what we could have perhaps done to better prepare for all the money that was used in the primary against me,” Lowden said. . . .
She also gave her critics ammunition, most notably a series of interviews in which she suggested that people should barter for their health care.

Way to fight that “clueless Republican” stereotype, Sue! Lowden had all the advantages going in, fumbled away the nomination because she couldn’t talk coherently about the issues, and then blames “all the money that was used . . . against me.”

Don’t let the door hit ya, etc.

UPDATE II: Video via the Las Vegas Sun:

Angle is obviously not a slick talker and she’s got hard work to do if she’s going to beat Reid in November. The fact that Angle defeated the GOP establishment’s hand-picked choice, Lowden, by 14 points is further evidence of Republican “brand damage” vulnerability.

Category: Arkansas, Nevada

Comments

19 Responses to “Primary Lessons: Don’t Bet Your Hopes”

  1. RightKlik
    June 9th, 2010 @ 1:17 pm

    “Democrat candidates can fake being conservative a lot easier than Republican candidates can escape the toxicity of that ‘R.'”

    And that’s why we have the Tea Party. The Party is an easily recognized and accessible antidote for GOP establishment toxicity.

    Nikki Haley is as good an example as any other…when Tea Party principles are sincerely embraced, conservative Republicans can enjoy great success, even in the most toxic environment.

  2. RightKlik
    June 9th, 2010 @ 9:17 am

    “Democrat candidates can fake being conservative a lot easier than Republican candidates can escape the toxicity of that ‘R.'”

    And that’s why we have the Tea Party. The Party is an easily recognized and accessible antidote for GOP establishment toxicity.

    Nikki Haley is as good an example as any other…when Tea Party principles are sincerely embraced, conservative Republicans can enjoy great success, even in the most toxic environment.

  3. Joe
    June 9th, 2010 @ 1:19 pm

    Good analysis. We need to realize, while we could win very big in November, none of these races are guaranteed and we could easily lose them too.

    Turnout matters. Elections have results. If you are happy with Obama policies, well stay home. If you are not, you had better get out and vote.

  4. Joe
    June 9th, 2010 @ 9:19 am

    Good analysis. We need to realize, while we could win very big in November, none of these races are guaranteed and we could easily lose them too.

    Turnout matters. Elections have results. If you are happy with Obama policies, well stay home. If you are not, you had better get out and vote.

  5. Joe
    June 9th, 2010 @ 1:35 pm

    Here is a guy expressing his feelings about Will Folks.

    H/T: Glenn Reynolds

  6. Joe
    June 9th, 2010 @ 9:35 am

    Here is a guy expressing his feelings about Will Folks.

    H/T: Glenn Reynolds

  7. Lipstick ain’t enough: Recovering from Republican Brand Damage is a Process « Si Vis Pacem
    June 9th, 2010 @ 9:42 am

    […] cost them the ’08 election – was studiously avoided by the parasite Kos and his host.  Robert Stacy McCain notes today that Lipstick ain't enough. “…Republicans need to be aware that their party still […]

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  9. RightKlik
    June 9th, 2010 @ 2:28 pm

    linked this post over at RightKlik

  10. RightKlik
    June 9th, 2010 @ 10:28 am

    linked this post over at RightKlik

  11. Joe
    June 9th, 2010 @ 3:21 pm

    Play Ball!

  12. Joe
    June 9th, 2010 @ 11:21 am

    Play Ball!

  13. Joe
    June 9th, 2010 @ 4:06 pm

    WTF?

  14. Joe
    June 9th, 2010 @ 12:06 pm

    WTF?

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    June 9th, 2010 @ 1:11 pm

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    […] As Stacy points out, the only thing that Democrats have going for them these days is the reflexive hatred that a lot of people have for the word “Republican”.  (This should be required reading for anyone considering a run for public office; it would be interesting to have conservatives run under the (D) ticket, just to see what would happen.) […]

  17. Estragon
    June 10th, 2010 @ 5:21 am

    One other very important point about PA-12: it is very unusual in PA for special elections to be scheduled for the same time as partisan primaries. Primaries are closed in PA, and independents and those registered to other parties are not used to going to the polls on primary day. The independent/other voters are over 20% of those registered in the district. It’s too early to call the Burns-Critz fall rematch.

    As another perspective on KingShamus’ point about Arkansas, notice that nearly two-thirds of the over 400,000 who voted in both primaries did so to vote AGAINST Lincoln, which is actually a worse showing for her than the polls are now showing against Boozman in November.

  18. Estragon
    June 10th, 2010 @ 1:21 am

    One other very important point about PA-12: it is very unusual in PA for special elections to be scheduled for the same time as partisan primaries. Primaries are closed in PA, and independents and those registered to other parties are not used to going to the polls on primary day. The independent/other voters are over 20% of those registered in the district. It’s too early to call the Burns-Critz fall rematch.

    As another perspective on KingShamus’ point about Arkansas, notice that nearly two-thirds of the over 400,000 who voted in both primaries did so to vote AGAINST Lincoln, which is actually a worse showing for her than the polls are now showing against Boozman in November.

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    June 10th, 2010 @ 10:40 am

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