The Other McCain

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Harry Reid, Comeback Kid?

Posted on | May 29, 2010 | 19 Comments

Disturbing news in Nevada:

Republican Sue Lowden has the best chance of defeating U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, according to a new poll for the Review-Journal that also suggests the Democratic incumbent could beat Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle in the fall, although he remains as unpopular as ever.
For the first time, a Mason-Dixon Polling & Research poll indicates that Reid could win re-election, even over Lowden, the one-time GOP front-runner whom the Democrat most fears and has most attacked. She is seen as moderate and a stronger general election foe than Angle, a staunch conservative now tied for the GOP primary lead.

What does it mean? We don’t know. The important thing always to remember about polls is this: A poll is not a prediction. It is, as pollsters say, a “snapshot” of opinion at any given time. And that’s true, whether we view the poll results as “good” news or “bad” news. (All political polls are “good” news to somebody.)

Especially beware of early polls. Remember that Marco Rubio started out 30 points behind Charlie Crist in the Florida GOP primary and, a month before the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter was 20 points ahead of Joe Sestak. When the pollster asks a question about “if the election were held tomorrow,” and the election is still many months away, you can’t exactly take that number to the bank.

Furthermore, candidates and campaigns matter. All through 2007, polls showed Hillary Clintonway ahead of Barack Obama, but Hillary ran a lousy campaign and Obama ran a smart campaign and so he kicked her butt.

Obviously, the Las Vegas Review-Journal is interpreting this poll as telling GOP voters to vote for Sue Lowden, not Sharron Angle. Maybe. Among others, Rush Limbaugh has endorsed Sue Lowden. But what if Lowden is running a lousy campaign? I mean, if she can’t beat a Tea Party candidate, how’s she going to beat Harry Reid?

When I went to Nevada in March, I met Lowden and visited her campaign headquarters. Nice lady, and a very efficient-looking campaign operation. So why has Sharron Angle surged? I don’t know, but here are the numbers now in the GOP primary:

  • Lowden 30%
  • Angle 29%
  • Tarkanian 23%

So, with the June 8 primary just around the corner, it looks like a dead heat. We’ll wait and see on that. I suspect that Reid’s mysterious “bounce” in the polls may actually reflect the intensity of the GOP primary. Right now, Angle’s Tea Party supporters are hating Lowden, and Lowden’s regular GOP supporters are hating Angle, and so this feeling hurts the poll numbers for both Angle and Lowden versus Reid. But when push comes to shove on Nov. 2, will people who hate Harry Reid stay home, rather than vote Republican? We’ll see.

Exit question: Has the Tea Party done anything for the GOP?

UPDATE: Instalanche! Excuse the belated thanks, but I was offline for eight hours while my teenage son fixed my computer.

Category: Election, Nevada, Republicans, Tea Party

Comments

19 Responses to “Harry Reid, Comeback Kid?”

  1. Estragon
    May 29th, 2010 @ 12:03 pm

    This report evidently comes from the Home For The Easily Disturbed.

    Tark and Lowden still lead Reid, and the only difference between this Mason-Dixon poll and the one three months ago is Angle is -5, Reid is the same. Reid’s high-water mark against any of the three in any poll this year is 42%, about the MOE below the incumbent’s “death line” of 45%.

    The primary is a three-way deadlock. Tark’s numbers trail, but these aren’t large samples. Conservatives should not desert him for Angle. She is a good person, but has that tendency to phrase things in a way which invite misinterpretation (to put it nicely) – as does Lowden, btw.

    As opposed to DeVore in California, the true conservative in Nevada is down a bit but not out, and deserves support.

    Oddly enough, the RedState super-geniuses apparently are throwing Tark under the bus for Angle, but doubling down on DeVore. Seems they weren’t good at math . . .

  2. Estragon
    May 29th, 2010 @ 7:03 am

    This report evidently comes from the Home For The Easily Disturbed.

    Tark and Lowden still lead Reid, and the only difference between this Mason-Dixon poll and the one three months ago is Angle is -5, Reid is the same. Reid’s high-water mark against any of the three in any poll this year is 42%, about the MOE below the incumbent’s “death line” of 45%.

    The primary is a three-way deadlock. Tark’s numbers trail, but these aren’t large samples. Conservatives should not desert him for Angle. She is a good person, but has that tendency to phrase things in a way which invite misinterpretation (to put it nicely) – as does Lowden, btw.

    As opposed to DeVore in California, the true conservative in Nevada is down a bit but not out, and deserves support.

    Oddly enough, the RedState super-geniuses apparently are throwing Tark under the bus for Angle, but doubling down on DeVore. Seems they weren’t good at math . . .

  3. ak4mc
    May 29th, 2010 @ 12:48 pm

    In any event, regardless of who wins the primary, VOTE FOR THE NOMINEE. I rather doubt any of the three GOP conternders disagree on the importance of beating Harry.

  4. ak4mc
    May 29th, 2010 @ 7:48 am

    In any event, regardless of who wins the primary, VOTE FOR THE NOMINEE. I rather doubt any of the three GOP conternders disagree on the importance of beating Harry.

  5. Virginia Right! News Hound for 5/29/2010 | Virginia Right!
    May 29th, 2010 @ 8:04 am

    […] Harry Reid, Comeback Kid? […]

  6. Joe
    May 29th, 2010 @ 1:22 pm

    Vote against Harry in the general. Harry needs to go.

  7. Joe
    May 29th, 2010 @ 8:22 am

    Vote against Harry in the general. Harry needs to go.

  8. Guest
    May 29th, 2010 @ 1:37 pm

    Why endorse a public-school teacher (substitute or not) since it is an established fact public school teachers do not know how to read, write or do arithmetic.

    Public-school teachers do know how to molest the children and rip-off taxpayers; unfortunately devout Pope Pelosi is in charge of that ‘educational’ system.

    Please avoid public school teachers, they are creepy evil things: greedy, gluttonous and lustful for violating the children.

  9. Guest
    May 29th, 2010 @ 8:37 am

    Why endorse a public-school teacher (substitute or not) since it is an established fact public school teachers do not know how to read, write or do arithmetic.

    Public-school teachers do know how to molest the children and rip-off taxpayers; unfortunately devout Pope Pelosi is in charge of that ‘educational’ system.

    Please avoid public school teachers, they are creepy evil things: greedy, gluttonous and lustful for violating the children.

  10. Hammy
    May 29th, 2010 @ 5:23 pm

    I don’t really care who wins the primary. Whoever runs against dingy “brothel sprout” harry gets my vote.

  11. Hammy
    May 29th, 2010 @ 12:23 pm

    I don’t really care who wins the primary. Whoever runs against dingy “brothel sprout” harry gets my vote.

  12. HOMELAND INSECURITY
    May 29th, 2010 @ 8:12 pm

    Here comes more undocumented democrats – http://www.BorderInvasionPics.com

  13. HOMELAND INSECURITY
    May 29th, 2010 @ 3:12 pm

    Here comes more undocumented democrats – http://www.BorderInvasionPics.com

  14. Rhodium Heart
    May 29th, 2010 @ 9:38 pm

    There have been viciously negative campaigns run against the Republican moderate-conservatives in both the Senatorial and Gubernatorial campaigns here. Both Sue Lowden (R Senate frontrunner) and Brian Sandoval (R Governor frontrunner) (a) are running against fellow R’s in the primary who have no money to run such saturation negative campaigns and (b) are running against people named Reid, Harry for Senate and Harry’s son Rory for Governor respectively. Do the math.

    Harry Reid wants you to vote for Sharron Angle, a nasty religious conservative who is unelectable in Nevada under any circumstances. (We Nevadans like our conservatives more libertarian and less the snooping-in-the-bedroom type.) Harry wants to rough up Sdandoval and maybe get our incompetent incumbent R governor re-nominated so his boy Rory can win.

    Sadly, at least as far as the Senate race goes, the R’s here seem all too happy to let Harry Reid hand-pick his opponent.

  15. Rhodium Heart
    May 29th, 2010 @ 4:38 pm

    There have been viciously negative campaigns run against the Republican moderate-conservatives in both the Senatorial and Gubernatorial campaigns here. Both Sue Lowden (R Senate frontrunner) and Brian Sandoval (R Governor frontrunner) (a) are running against fellow R’s in the primary who have no money to run such saturation negative campaigns and (b) are running against people named Reid, Harry for Senate and Harry’s son Rory for Governor respectively. Do the math.

    Harry Reid wants you to vote for Sharron Angle, a nasty religious conservative who is unelectable in Nevada under any circumstances. (We Nevadans like our conservatives more libertarian and less the snooping-in-the-bedroom type.) Harry wants to rough up Sdandoval and maybe get our incompetent incumbent R governor re-nominated so his boy Rory can win.

    Sadly, at least as far as the Senate race goes, the R’s here seem all too happy to let Harry Reid hand-pick his opponent.

  16. Steve Swanson
    May 29th, 2010 @ 9:44 pm

    You’re missing the main point, which is that Reid can’t get out of the low 40’s against anyone. If everyone drops out and the Republicans nominate a potato chip with the profile of Ronald Reagan, I doubt if Harry could climb into the mid-40’s. Absent a compelling third party candidate, this does not bode well for the majority leader.

    As soon as the Republican nominee is decided and the inevitable sour grapes are mashed into a fine spray and evaporated, the numbers will revert back.

  17. Steve Swanson
    May 29th, 2010 @ 4:44 pm

    You’re missing the main point, which is that Reid can’t get out of the low 40’s against anyone. If everyone drops out and the Republicans nominate a potato chip with the profile of Ronald Reagan, I doubt if Harry could climb into the mid-40’s. Absent a compelling third party candidate, this does not bode well for the majority leader.

    As soon as the Republican nominee is decided and the inevitable sour grapes are mashed into a fine spray and evaporated, the numbers will revert back.

  18. Mark Noonan
    June 6th, 2010 @ 4:45 am

    The most recent poll now has Angle ahead, with Tarkanian and Lowden essentially tied for second place. Quite a come-down for Lowden who appears unstoppable even a month ago. Why did this happen?

    Lowden didn’t work the TEA Party activists, Angle did. Sure, Lowden would show up, but she never made a specific bid – her campaign, until just this past week, was all geared towards the concept of a walk-over win against Harry Reid in the Fall. The primary was in the bag and she was crushing Reid in the polls…but now she barely leads Reid in recent polling and is struggling just to get the nomination – and she’s doing it the worst way possible: she’s gone negative against Angle (Tarkanian started out negative with his push-polling, has cleaned up his act but its now too late for him to repair the damage).

    People are tired of politics as usual – Angle has run a clean, positive campaign and she’s likely to get rewarded for it on June 8th. Will she beat Harry Reid? I think she can – she’s not “too conservative” for the State unless you’re just convinced that mushiness is the way to go. In a lot of years, it might have been – not in 2010.

  19. Mark Noonan
    June 6th, 2010 @ 12:45 am

    The most recent poll now has Angle ahead, with Tarkanian and Lowden essentially tied for second place. Quite a come-down for Lowden who appears unstoppable even a month ago. Why did this happen?

    Lowden didn’t work the TEA Party activists, Angle did. Sure, Lowden would show up, but she never made a specific bid – her campaign, until just this past week, was all geared towards the concept of a walk-over win against Harry Reid in the Fall. The primary was in the bag and she was crushing Reid in the polls…but now she barely leads Reid in recent polling and is struggling just to get the nomination – and she’s doing it the worst way possible: she’s gone negative against Angle (Tarkanian started out negative with his push-polling, has cleaned up his act but its now too late for him to repair the damage).

    People are tired of politics as usual – Angle has run a clean, positive campaign and she’s likely to get rewarded for it on June 8th. Will she beat Harry Reid? I think she can – she’s not “too conservative” for the State unless you’re just convinced that mushiness is the way to go. In a lot of years, it might have been – not in 2010.