The Other McCain

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Fear and Fedora in Las Vegas
When In Doubt, Put It All on Red

Posted on | May 22, 2010 | 18 Comments

You may remember this video of Steve Foley and Eric Odom from my March expedition to Las Vegas:

Foley and Odom were playing the slots at the Orleans Hotel & Casino on West Tropicana. The Orleans is way off the Strip, far from the overpriced glitter that attracts rich tourists, celebrities and other high rollers. If you want to see showgirls, comedians or Cher, go to the Strip. If you want to do some serious gambling, go to the Orleans.

Slot machines aren’t serious gambling. Slot machines are electronic devices for reducing stupid people to poverty. That’s why I was so shocked a few years ago when it was revealed that Bill Bennett was a video-poker addict.

Dude. You’re the former Secretary of Education, a Ph.D. and a Harvard Law graduate, and you can’t figure out that video-poker is a chump’s game? As Steve Sailer pointed out at the time, playing the slots is also a loner’s game:

Playing modern electronic slot machines looks a lot like what I do for a living everyday: tapping away on a computer . . .
The news that Bennett, a man with a doctorate in philosophy, played the slots religiously aroused much derisive comment from my acquaintances, who saw slots as a low-class, strategy-free solitary vice.
A novelist wrote me, “What astonishes me is the stupidity of Bennett’s gambling. I used to be a drunk, but I didn’t get sozzled on cheap gin and moonshine. I drank good Scotch and Carlos Primera brandy. Similarly, I can imagine being addicted to gambling, but not to slot machines. . . .”
Slot machines and video poker, Bennett’s two favorites, are widely seen as old ladies’ games . .
A barber who has been playing poker three nights a week at the card rooms southeast of Los Angeles since he won $45,000 last winter, observed, “The slots are a no-brainer. You don’t have to know anything to play them, so you can’t mess up and be embarrassed.”

Playing the slots is an anti-social activity, a lonely habit like heroin or pornography — and, as Steve Sailer noted, journalism can be kind of a lonely habit, too. Covering the Tea Party Express gave me a once-in-a-lifetime chance to hit Vegas, so why would I want to spend my time sitting around “tapping away on a computer”?

No, I say. If you’re going to lose money, you might as well have some fun while you’re at it. So after I pried Odom and Foley away from the slots, and we were joined by New Media strategist Ali Akbar, I insisted on more sociable entertainment.

Odom just sent me that photo via Twitter. That’s Ali on the other side of the table. And notice those stacks of chips lined up in front of me? I sat down with only $20. As I said at the time:

[W]hen JSF of Valley of the Shadow blog heard I was coming to Vegas, he offered me this excellent advice: “Put it all on red.”
Dude. You’ve got no idea how well that advice paid off.

So clearly a hat-tip is owed, and I notice that JSF — California Republican activist Joe Fein — has some more excellent advice: A blogger-friendly fundraiser to boost the California GOP in 2010.

You should hit Joe’s tip-jar while you’re there. And if you’re ever in Vegas, take Joe’s advice: Put it all on red.

UPDATE: My libertarian friend Tom Knapp notes that he is author of the $3.99 booklet Roulette for the Leisure Gambler.

In his comment below, Tom explains what several of my friends have told me — roulette has the highest house “edge” of any table game — but on the other hand, the mathematical probabilities are easier to understand than poker or blackjack.

Any fool can walk past a row of roulette tables, looking at the electronic boards, and spot one that has, for example, hit black on seven of the last eight spins, with four consecutive even numbers.

The key here is not to say anything to your buddies. Your choice of tables should seem entirely random.

Plunk down $5 on red and $5 on odd, scatter five $1 bets inside (always cover 0/00) and spend the rest of the night being congratulated by your buddies on your amazing luck. 

When your buddies get bored or lose out, they’ll go to the ATM and hit the blackjack pit or craps tables, lose some more and come back, to find you still sitting there with a pile of chips in front of you, laughing and joking without a care in the world.

Vegas schadenfreude, baby! Cue the music:

Category: California, Fear and Loathing With Ann Coulter in Las Vegas, Valley of the Shadow

Comments

18 Responses to “Fear and Fedora in Las Vegas
When In Doubt, Put It All on Red”

  1. Joe
    May 22nd, 2010 @ 3:24 pm

    The video games suck. The other problem with the strip is the minimums are often high on the black jack tables ($100 a hand at the Belagio is a bit much for me).

  2. Joe
    May 22nd, 2010 @ 10:24 am

    The video games suck. The other problem with the strip is the minimums are often high on the black jack tables ($100 a hand at the Belagio is a bit much for me).

  3. I know it’s a matter of Taste… « DaTechguy's Blog
    May 22nd, 2010 @ 10:50 am

    […] know it’s a matter of Taste… By datechguy but I have to disagree with Stacy a bit. It all depends on who you are playing slots with. My wife used to go with her mother all the time […]

  4. Thomas L. Knapp
    May 22nd, 2010 @ 3:54 pm

    The house edge on “Jacks or Better” video poker is 0.46%.

    The house edge on single-zero roulette is 2.7%; on double-zero, 5.26%.

    Slot machine edges vary (for one thing, state laws have variable percentage payout requirements), but are usually in the same general range as roulette.

    Not to put down roulette. I love roulette. Hell, I wrote the book on roulette. But it’s the worst of the casino table games in terms of house edge (the best would be craps if you use the option to take odds after the come-out on a pass line bet).

    There are mitigating factors that aren’t easy to quantify, too.

    For example, if you’re a drinker, and if you’re playing in a place that gives players free drinks (like most of the reasonably nice casions in Vegas do), the waitress is going to come around to the roulette table much more often than to the quarter slots row you’re on. All other things being equal, you’re probably “making” an extra $5-$10 an hour in free liquor at the roulette table versus the slots.

    And then there’s the “comps.”

    Most casinos these days seem to have automated their regular comps, so that you rack up free meals, hotel rooms, etc. at the same rate based on how much money you put in play, regardless of what you’re playing.

    But there are also the non-automated comps — the pit boss gives you a free meal because you’re the guy bringing action to a table that was cold, or because you kept your mouth shut and stayed at the table for 20 minutes while some drunk asshole made it not so fun (but he dropped $5k — I got TWO free meals at Sam’s Town in Tunica for that). At the roulette table, you might get those comps. At the slots, the most you’ll see of the casino employees is one walking by occasionally to make sure you’re not tampering with the machines.

  5. Thomas L. Knapp
    May 22nd, 2010 @ 10:54 am

    The house edge on “Jacks or Better” video poker is 0.46%.

    The house edge on single-zero roulette is 2.7%; on double-zero, 5.26%.

    Slot machine edges vary (for one thing, state laws have variable percentage payout requirements), but are usually in the same general range as roulette.

    Not to put down roulette. I love roulette. Hell, I wrote the book on roulette. But it’s the worst of the casino table games in terms of house edge (the best would be craps if you use the option to take odds after the come-out on a pass line bet).

    There are mitigating factors that aren’t easy to quantify, too.

    For example, if you’re a drinker, and if you’re playing in a place that gives players free drinks (like most of the reasonably nice casions in Vegas do), the waitress is going to come around to the roulette table much more often than to the quarter slots row you’re on. All other things being equal, you’re probably “making” an extra $5-$10 an hour in free liquor at the roulette table versus the slots.

    And then there’s the “comps.”

    Most casinos these days seem to have automated their regular comps, so that you rack up free meals, hotel rooms, etc. at the same rate based on how much money you put in play, regardless of what you’re playing.

    But there are also the non-automated comps — the pit boss gives you a free meal because you’re the guy bringing action to a table that was cold, or because you kept your mouth shut and stayed at the table for 20 minutes while some drunk asshole made it not so fun (but he dropped $5k — I got TWO free meals at Sam’s Town in Tunica for that). At the roulette table, you might get those comps. At the slots, the most you’ll see of the casino employees is one walking by occasionally to make sure you’re not tampering with the machines.

  6. Robert Stacy McCain
    May 22nd, 2010 @ 4:16 pm

    the minimums are often high on the black jack tables

    Exactly. There was a $5 minimum on roulette at Orleans which — if you are even remotely sensible about it — allows you to spend an entire evening losing $100 slowly, even if you don’t win. The higher the minimum, the more you have to bring into the game, and the less you’re able to control your losses.

    What was so cool about that one lucky streak in Vegas is that I won on the first two or three spins — I mean red was hot — so that I was then playing with the house’s money. If you ever get ahead like that on roulette, all you have to do is play safe: “outside” bets (red or black, even or odd, and the 2-to-1 outsides) according to probability, with the minimum number of chips scattered inside — always cover 0/00 — and you can sit there the rest of the night, relaxed and joking, just playing with the house’s money.

    Of course, statistical probability aside, any spin of the wheel is 38-to-1 and anybody can hit a streak, for good or ill. The important point is this: You can’t control the numbers, but you can control your bets.

    Most people are losers because most people underestimate their own stupidity. To quote the most important statistic:

    The average win/hold for double zero wheels is between 21-30%, significantly more than the 5.26% house edge.

    Remember that the odds always favor the house, so figure out in advance how much you’re going to lose, and resolve to lose it slowly, because the slower you lose, the greater your chances of that lucky spin that pays big. If you start playing crazy or desperate or get in a hurry, you’re just going to lose quicker. You can “hedge” your inside vs. outside bets — e.g., play $5 “red” and $5 “odd” and then put $1 each on four different black even numbers (always cover 0/00). On that rare occasion when you get a 35-to-1 payout inside, rake it in and bet it $5 at a time on the outside — that’s seven free spins with the house’s money.

    You’re not going to get rich playing that way. But if you go to Vegas planning to get rich, you’re too stupid to be in Vegas.

  7. Robert Stacy McCain
    May 22nd, 2010 @ 11:16 am

    the minimums are often high on the black jack tables

    Exactly. There was a $5 minimum on roulette at Orleans which — if you are even remotely sensible about it — allows you to spend an entire evening losing $100 slowly, even if you don’t win. The higher the minimum, the more you have to bring into the game, and the less you’re able to control your losses.

    What was so cool about that one lucky streak in Vegas is that I won on the first two or three spins — I mean red was hot — so that I was then playing with the house’s money. If you ever get ahead like that on roulette, all you have to do is play safe: “outside” bets (red or black, even or odd, and the 2-to-1 outsides) according to probability, with the minimum number of chips scattered inside — always cover 0/00 — and you can sit there the rest of the night, relaxed and joking, just playing with the house’s money.

    Of course, statistical probability aside, any spin of the wheel is 38-to-1 and anybody can hit a streak, for good or ill. The important point is this: You can’t control the numbers, but you can control your bets.

    Most people are losers because most people underestimate their own stupidity. To quote the most important statistic:

    The average win/hold for double zero wheels is between 21-30%, significantly more than the 5.26% house edge.

    Remember that the odds always favor the house, so figure out in advance how much you’re going to lose, and resolve to lose it slowly, because the slower you lose, the greater your chances of that lucky spin that pays big. If you start playing crazy or desperate or get in a hurry, you’re just going to lose quicker. You can “hedge” your inside vs. outside bets — e.g., play $5 “red” and $5 “odd” and then put $1 each on four different black even numbers (always cover 0/00). On that rare occasion when you get a 35-to-1 payout inside, rake it in and bet it $5 at a time on the outside — that’s seven free spins with the house’s money.

    You’re not going to get rich playing that way. But if you go to Vegas planning to get rich, you’re too stupid to be in Vegas.

  8. Miss Sharon
    May 22nd, 2010 @ 4:17 pm

    I had my first casino gambling experience recently and started on the penny slots. Wow, how boring!! The people watching though, was very intriguing, from the oxygen tank toting to those watching TV while automatically pressing the bet button. Sad place. Very sad. Checked it off the bucket list though.

  9. Miss Sharon
    May 22nd, 2010 @ 11:17 am

    I had my first casino gambling experience recently and started on the penny slots. Wow, how boring!! The people watching though, was very intriguing, from the oxygen tank toting to those watching TV while automatically pressing the bet button. Sad place. Very sad. Checked it off the bucket list though.

  10. Joe
    May 22nd, 2010 @ 5:44 pm

    My grandmother made it to 93 occasionally playing video slots, so what the heck, she liked it. She would spend all day losing $50. She did not have the O2 tank, but she definitely took advantage of the mobile scooters.

  11. Joe
    May 22nd, 2010 @ 12:44 pm

    My grandmother made it to 93 occasionally playing video slots, so what the heck, she liked it. She would spend all day losing $50. She did not have the O2 tank, but she definitely took advantage of the mobile scooters.

  12. Estragon
    May 22nd, 2010 @ 8:15 pm

    If a roulette wheel has hit Black eight times in a row and even four times in a row, what effect does that have on the odds for the next spin?

    None. Nada. Zip. Zero. The Wheel doesn’t know what it’s last eight or 100 results were, any more than a coin keeps track of heads and tails.

  13. Estragon
    May 22nd, 2010 @ 3:15 pm

    If a roulette wheel has hit Black eight times in a row and even four times in a row, what effect does that have on the odds for the next spin?

    None. Nada. Zip. Zero. The Wheel doesn’t know what it’s last eight or 100 results were, any more than a coin keeps track of heads and tails.

  14. Thomas L. Knapp
    May 22nd, 2010 @ 8:30 pm

    Bingo — probability says that in the long run, the ball will land on black about half the time, and on red about half the time (and 0 or 00 a tiny fraction of the time, and assuming an unbiased, truly random wheel) … but real people don’t play roulette in the long run, and each spin of the wheel is an independent event.

    There is no “system” that can guarantee a winning roulette session.

    There are some common sense betting and money management rules that tell you when to keep playing and when to walk away, though.

  15. Thomas L. Knapp
    May 22nd, 2010 @ 3:30 pm

    Bingo — probability says that in the long run, the ball will land on black about half the time, and on red about half the time (and 0 or 00 a tiny fraction of the time, and assuming an unbiased, truly random wheel) … but real people don’t play roulette in the long run, and each spin of the wheel is an independent event.

    There is no “system” that can guarantee a winning roulette session.

    There are some common sense betting and money management rules that tell you when to keep playing and when to walk away, though.

  16. The Gambler
    May 23rd, 2010 @ 7:59 am

    There’s only one gambling enterprise that historically has guaranteed a profit if you play it long enough – the stock market. If, in the past, you were sufficiently diversified over a long enough time period, you would always “win” – the US Economy has always gone up over the long term. Only I’m not confident that will be true for the future – I think the Progressives have killed the last “sure bet”, and we’re in for a long, sustained slide downwards.

  17. The Gambler
    May 23rd, 2010 @ 2:59 am

    There’s only one gambling enterprise that historically has guaranteed a profit if you play it long enough – the stock market. If, in the past, you were sufficiently diversified over a long enough time period, you would always “win” – the US Economy has always gone up over the long term. Only I’m not confident that will be true for the future – I think the Progressives have killed the last “sure bet”, and we’re in for a long, sustained slide downwards.

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