The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Unemployed? Either Get Used to It — or Get Smart and Get Going!

Posted on | March 2, 2010 | 21 Comments

Megan McArdle points out something about our “jobless recovery” that should be obvious, but isn’t:

Programmer jobs that once demanded anyone with a pulse and a C++ manual now require that you also have at least three years of experience designing websites for a fast food multinational, speak fluent Tajik, and be proficient in hacky sack. So just as employees are flooding the market from industries that need to permanently downsize, it becomes harder to transition into a new industry or job description. . . .
The result: long term unemployment. What is the government supposed to do about that? . . .
The answer is, nothing. We can, and should, ease the pain of those who lose jobs. But the government can’t find you a job any more than it can find you a spouse or a hobby. The process of matching individuals to employers can only be done by individuals.

Megan echoes points made by Joseph Lawler in discussing this problem in the December-January issue of The American Spectator.

Boiling down a complex discussion to its essence, we must understand the difference between cyclical unemployment — a temporary situation caused by short-term downward trends in the business cycle — and structural unemployment, which is the result of fundamental changes in the economic structure of society.

Take, for example, coal mining. Once upon a time, mining was primarily done in deep underground tunnels by men with picks and shovels, which gave employment to thousands of men. Work conditions were physically arduous and dangerous, but it was at least a job. Mechanization and the shift toward surface mining (which environmentalists stigmatize by use of the pejorative term “strip mining”) changed all that. Now a crew of a dozen men using heavy machinery can mine coal with an efficiency far greater than the pick-and-shovel method, and thus render unnecessary those mass gangs of sweaty proletarians. This is a structural change.

‘Good Old Days’?

Such structural changes are simply part of the process of economic development, and usually take place slowly over the course of decades. But the dawn of the Information Age and the trend toward global trade and communication have accelerated this process in recent decades. Structural change in the economy now happens more rapidly, but is nonetheless still irreversible.

People complain about “downsizing” and “outsourcing” are, in fact, complaining about economic progress. They might as well grab a shovel and try to start their own backyard coal mine as to suppose that we can otherwise return to whatever “Good Old Days” they celebrate as an economic beau ideal. (It is nowadays fashionable for liberals to idealize the 1950s or ’60s in this manner, although liberals back then condemned the economic order as “unjust” with the same ferocity as today’s liberals condemn today’s economic order.)

Nostalgia is not a viable economic policy. And, as Megan McArdle says, there isn’t really a lot that government can do to remedy the economic growing pains of structural unemployment. In fact, if government aid encourages people to stay put, collect benefits and wait for the old jobs to come back, government actually makes the problem worse.

Suppose that you moved to Las Vegas a few years ago to take a construction-related industry when Vegas was one of the hottest real-estate markets in the country. You found a house and took out a low down-payment mortgage. Now boom has turned to bust and you’re out of a job.

The government may give you a special program to help you hold onto that house, and extend your unemployment benefits — but that doesn’t solve your fundamental problem, which is that there is now far less economic opportunity in Las Vegas than when you moved there and bought a house. In terms of your long-term economic prospects, you would be better off declaring bankruptcy and letting your house go into foreclosure, and moving somewhere you could actually get a good job.

Government often creates perverse incentives in this way, rewarding behavior that is not economically viable. Just as the “Great Society” programs of the 1960s encouraged the poor to move into inner-city public housing and accept welfare payments — rather than seeking out employment in the fast-growing suburbs — so it now encourages similarly foolish behavior by middle-class people economically impacted by the recent recession.

Unemployment = Opportunity

The good news is this: Despite everything that government does to impede economic growth and prosperity, there is still real opportunity in America, even in hard times. This may not seem possible if you’ve just lost a job you’ve had for 15 or 20 years — “depression” describes both an economic condition and a mood disorder — and it’s especially hard to see hope when the job you lost was in an industry that shows no prospect for recovery, so that you’ll have to seek an entirely new field of employment.

One of the most amazing things about human nature is how people will bitch constantly about their lousy jobs — right up until the day they get laid off, at which point that lousy job suddenly seems a lot less lousy. If your new job description is “unemployed,” why not try to make the most of that opportunity?

The American Dream is still out there, and you never know what can happen if you’ll just keep trying. I worked 22 years in the newspaper business, an industry that is circling the drain. I walked away two years ago and haven’t looked back. 

While I haven’t yet become one of Instapundit’s favorite sources and I may never get re-Tweeted by Alyssa Milano, 3.6 million visits since March 2008 is a pretty impressive start. My office is wherever I happen to be — which makes for an easy commute — and who could ask for a better colleague than Smitty?

Plus, I’ve got the best boss in the world. Not just Mrs. Other McCain, but also you, as long as you keep hitting the tip jar.

Category: Blogging, Economics, Mrs. Other McCain

Comments

21 Responses to “Unemployed? Either Get Used to It — or Get Smart and Get Going!”

  1. Tony Orlando
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 6:00 pm

    You know, I have to tell you, I really enjoy this blog and the insight from everyone who participates. I find it to be refreshing and very informative. I wish there were more blogs like it. Anyway, I felt it was about time I posted, I?ve spent most of my time here just lurking and reading, but today for some reason I just felt compelled to say this.

  2. Tony Orlando
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 1:00 pm

    You know, I have to tell you, I really enjoy this blog and the insight from everyone who participates. I find it to be refreshing and very informative. I wish there were more blogs like it. Anyway, I felt it was about time I posted, I?ve spent most of my time here just lurking and reading, but today for some reason I just felt compelled to say this.

  3. Bill
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 6:15 pm

    I love Megan – but she’s high. There’s a ton of programmer jobs – I interview people daily and the market is insanely competitive. The pool of applicants is really poor (we’d expect the recession to have changed that but there’s plenty of jobs for people with skills).

    C++ is one of the harder languages you can program in BTW – you can fake your way through a lot of stuff – C++ – good luck. There was never a time you could grab a C++ manual and get hired – the DotCom days were close but even then it’s an overstatement. And if I’m wrong and there’s a whole pool of talented devs out there who can’t find work – my email is listed above – holla

  4. Bill
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 1:15 pm

    I love Megan – but she’s high. There’s a ton of programmer jobs – I interview people daily and the market is insanely competitive. The pool of applicants is really poor (we’d expect the recession to have changed that but there’s plenty of jobs for people with skills).

    C++ is one of the harder languages you can program in BTW – you can fake your way through a lot of stuff – C++ – good luck. There was never a time you could grab a C++ manual and get hired – the DotCom days were close but even then it’s an overstatement. And if I’m wrong and there’s a whole pool of talented devs out there who can’t find work – my email is listed above – holla

  5. Tony Orlando
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 6:44 pm

    Hi there,

    I looked over your blog and it looks really good. Do you ever do link exchanges on your blog roll? If you do, I’d like to exchange links with you.

    Let me know if you’re interested.

    Thanks..

  6. Tony Orlando
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 1:44 pm

    Hi there,

    I looked over your blog and it looks really good. Do you ever do link exchanges on your blog roll? If you do, I’d like to exchange links with you.

    Let me know if you’re interested.

    Thanks..

  7. Tony Orlando
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 7:00 pm

    Hello. I was reading someone elses blog and saw you on their blogroll. Would you be interested in exchanging blog roll links? If so, feel free to email me.

    Thanks.

  8. Tony Orlando
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 2:00 pm

    Hello. I was reading someone elses blog and saw you on their blogroll. Would you be interested in exchanging blog roll links? If so, feel free to email me.

    Thanks.

  9. Bob Belvedere
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 7:08 pm

    TONY Also Said: Knock three times on the spammer, if you want me.

  10. Bob Belvedere
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 2:08 pm

    TONY Also Said: Knock three times on the spammer, if you want me.

  11. richard mcenroe
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 7:51 pm

    It’s Tony Orlando, the dawn of a new age in blogging!

    I know what I’m doing about my employment situation. I’m starting my own business this week. I doubt I’ll incorporate in CA,not being stupid, but it’s time to get going on doing something I love and am good at rather than just something I gotta.

  12. richard mcenroe
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 2:51 pm

    It’s Tony Orlando, the dawn of a new age in blogging!

    I know what I’m doing about my employment situation. I’m starting my own business this week. I doubt I’ll incorporate in CA,not being stupid, but it’s time to get going on doing something I love and am good at rather than just something I gotta.

  13. Roxeanne de Luca
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 8:18 pm

    On the unemployment = opportunity subject, what amazes me is how many people shun volunteering in the field of your choice while you job-hunt. Aside from the warm fuzzies that it generates, it’s a great way to gain experience and network.

    One of my friends, who lost her job in HR, has spent the last year becoming a notary public, taking classes, and volunteering while looking for a job. Her resume looks more impressive than it did when she started her unemployment.

    It’s not a perfect solution, and pretty much only works if you are young, living with your parents, and/or collecting unemployment, but it’s better than wallowing in misery.

  14. Roxeanne de Luca
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 3:18 pm

    On the unemployment = opportunity subject, what amazes me is how many people shun volunteering in the field of your choice while you job-hunt. Aside from the warm fuzzies that it generates, it’s a great way to gain experience and network.

    One of my friends, who lost her job in HR, has spent the last year becoming a notary public, taking classes, and volunteering while looking for a job. Her resume looks more impressive than it did when she started her unemployment.

    It’s not a perfect solution, and pretty much only works if you are young, living with your parents, and/or collecting unemployment, but it’s better than wallowing in misery.

  15. Roxeanne de Luca
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 8:22 pm

    richard mcenroe: Free advice, so take it for what it’s worth: unless you are going to carry E&O insurance (which can be very expensive), become a LLC. That avoids the double-taxation issue with small businesses but will provide you with some measure of protection in the event of a lawsuit.

    Furthermore, it’s a disincentive to a lawsuit in of itself; even being victorious in a lawsuit doesn’t mean much if you spend tens of thousands of dollars and a year of your life to get there.

    Do not ask me how I know this. (Or do ask me; I saw the issue with a small mom & pop business in your state a few years ago.)

  16. Roxeanne de Luca
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 3:22 pm

    richard mcenroe: Free advice, so take it for what it’s worth: unless you are going to carry E&O insurance (which can be very expensive), become a LLC. That avoids the double-taxation issue with small businesses but will provide you with some measure of protection in the event of a lawsuit.

    Furthermore, it’s a disincentive to a lawsuit in of itself; even being victorious in a lawsuit doesn’t mean much if you spend tens of thousands of dollars and a year of your life to get there.

    Do not ask me how I know this. (Or do ask me; I saw the issue with a small mom & pop business in your state a few years ago.)

  17. Paul A'Barge
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 9:14 pm

    “Programmer jobs that once demanded anyone with a pulse and a C++ manual now require that you also have at least three years of experience designing websites for a fast food multinational, speak fluent Tajik, and be proficient in hacky sack.”

    This glib shit isn’t cutting it, man.

    Note that neither speaking fluent Tajik nor being proficient in hacky sack have anything to do with C++ programming.

    In other words, people are still hiring C++ programmers. However, those people hiring are fewer and farther between and it’s a feast day for those who are hiring. And those who are hiring are not not missing an opportunity to feed like vultures off their new found opportunity to pick their hires based on criteria that have nothing to do with the skills necessary to do the job for which hiring is taking place.

    In other words, this is not a transition in job description. This is not someone out of work because the work place no longer uses the skills of the unemployed (think of the guy who used to weld auto frames that are now welded by machines).

    This is just simply a very deep unemployment curve in which employers are making huge cutbacks, deferments and postponements in investment in their IT infrastructure because the economy, the government and Obama suck.

    Let’s get real about this, ok? This crap isn’t happening to just people with a pulse and a C++ manual. This crap is happening to people with a pulse and a brain and a long resume in a broad set of IT skills competing in a market place that has suddenly increased by a factor of 100.

  18. Paul A'Barge
    March 2nd, 2010 @ 4:14 pm

    “Programmer jobs that once demanded anyone with a pulse and a C++ manual now require that you also have at least three years of experience designing websites for a fast food multinational, speak fluent Tajik, and be proficient in hacky sack.”

    This glib shit isn’t cutting it, man.

    Note that neither speaking fluent Tajik nor being proficient in hacky sack have anything to do with C++ programming.

    In other words, people are still hiring C++ programmers. However, those people hiring are fewer and farther between and it’s a feast day for those who are hiring. And those who are hiring are not not missing an opportunity to feed like vultures off their new found opportunity to pick their hires based on criteria that have nothing to do with the skills necessary to do the job for which hiring is taking place.

    In other words, this is not a transition in job description. This is not someone out of work because the work place no longer uses the skills of the unemployed (think of the guy who used to weld auto frames that are now welded by machines).

    This is just simply a very deep unemployment curve in which employers are making huge cutbacks, deferments and postponements in investment in their IT infrastructure because the economy, the government and Obama suck.

    Let’s get real about this, ok? This crap isn’t happening to just people with a pulse and a C++ manual. This crap is happening to people with a pulse and a brain and a long resume in a broad set of IT skills competing in a market place that has suddenly increased by a factor of 100.

  19. The Javelineer
    March 3rd, 2010 @ 9:21 pm

    McCardle supported the bailouts, because “fiance is weird.” whatever. I disagree with McArdle’s article and this RSM post.

    The government issues more H-1B non-immigrant visas than unemployed citizen techies! By simply terminating these visas, we’d have full employment in the tech sector.

    The National Science Foundation has intentionally and successfully depressed science, technical, engineering, and technical worker wages. The NSF knew, predicted even, that the lower wages would reduce enrollment and interest in science and technology among citizens. It was done on purpose – to lower R&D costs for big business and government.

    Despite desperate unemployment rates, the government has issued over 1.5 million green cards in the last 18 months.

    The government uses the tax system to force US workers to subsidize their labor competition. For example, GM used the TARP money to build factories in China and Brazil.

    The government enforces strict anti-dumping laws against foreign state subsidized products, but the government encourages labor competition trained in state-subsidized schools and polytechnics.

    The US government hates citizen workers. It has intentionally tanked the labor market to benefit large corporate interests.

    Crony capitalism, really crypto-fascism, is capitalism for the middle class and socialism for big business. The main opponent of this creeping fascism has been the middle class which believes in individual liberty and individual productivity. To break the political power of the middle class, to nationalize almost everything under captured “independent agencies,” the crony capitalists seek to bankrupt, disrupt and neutralize middle class peoples.

    The bailouts changed the way the American people view government. The great middle class knows that big businesses steal from the middle class and use the loot to depress middle class wages. It’s an intentionally viscous circle. Everyone knows it, now. And it’s not going to go on much longer.

    Mark this well. Choose your side carefully. There will be a terrible, immense backlash. Bank on it.

  20. The Javelineer
    March 3rd, 2010 @ 4:21 pm

    McCardle supported the bailouts, because “fiance is weird.” whatever. I disagree with McArdle’s article and this RSM post.

    The government issues more H-1B non-immigrant visas than unemployed citizen techies! By simply terminating these visas, we’d have full employment in the tech sector.

    The National Science Foundation has intentionally and successfully depressed science, technical, engineering, and technical worker wages. The NSF knew, predicted even, that the lower wages would reduce enrollment and interest in science and technology among citizens. It was done on purpose – to lower R&D costs for big business and government.

    Despite desperate unemployment rates, the government has issued over 1.5 million green cards in the last 18 months.

    The government uses the tax system to force US workers to subsidize their labor competition. For example, GM used the TARP money to build factories in China and Brazil.

    The government enforces strict anti-dumping laws against foreign state subsidized products, but the government encourages labor competition trained in state-subsidized schools and polytechnics.

    The US government hates citizen workers. It has intentionally tanked the labor market to benefit large corporate interests.

    Crony capitalism, really crypto-fascism, is capitalism for the middle class and socialism for big business. The main opponent of this creeping fascism has been the middle class which believes in individual liberty and individual productivity. To break the political power of the middle class, to nationalize almost everything under captured “independent agencies,” the crony capitalists seek to bankrupt, disrupt and neutralize middle class peoples.

    The bailouts changed the way the American people view government. The great middle class knows that big businesses steal from the middle class and use the loot to depress middle class wages. It’s an intentionally viscous circle. Everyone knows it, now. And it’s not going to go on much longer.

    Mark this well. Choose your side carefully. There will be a terrible, immense backlash. Bank on it.

  21. What Matthew Yglesias Doesn’t Understand About Economics : The Other McCain
    April 18th, 2010 @ 6:10 pm

    […] in-depth discussion of this issue in the December-January issue of the American Spectator, which I summarized in March:Boiling down a complex discussion to its essence, we must understand the difference […]